Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, a...

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Main Authors: Ito, Akihiko, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Gädeke, Anne, Ciais, Philippe, Chang, Jinfeng, Chen, Min, François, Louis, Forrest, Matthew, Hickler, Thomas, Ostberg, Sebastian, Shi, Hao, Thiery, Wim, Tian, Hanqin
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Bristol : IOP Publ. 2020
Subjects:
590
Online Access:https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10256
https://doi.org/10.34657/9292
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spelling ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:P9JDfYoBNQPDO7WIp2qU 2023-10-09T21:48:40+02:00 Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P. O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10256 https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 eng eng Bristol : IOP Publ. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020), Nr. 4 Biome sector Climatic impacts ISIMIP2b Northern high latitudes Paris agreement 590 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 2023-09-10T23:34:24Z Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Arctic
institution Open Polar
collection LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association)
op_collection_id ftleibnizopen
language English
topic Biome sector
Climatic impacts
ISIMIP2b
Northern high latitudes
Paris agreement
590
spellingShingle Biome sector
Climatic impacts
ISIMIP2b
Northern high latitudes
Paris agreement
590
Ito, Akihiko
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Gädeke, Anne
Ciais, Philippe
Chang, Jinfeng
Chen, Min
François, Louis
Forrest, Matthew
Hickler, Thomas
Ostberg, Sebastian
Shi, Hao
Thiery, Wim
Tian, Hanqin
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
topic_facet Biome sector
Climatic impacts
ISIMIP2b
Northern high latitudes
Paris agreement
590
description Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. publishedVersion
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Ito, Akihiko
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Gädeke, Anne
Ciais, Philippe
Chang, Jinfeng
Chen, Min
François, Louis
Forrest, Matthew
Hickler, Thomas
Ostberg, Sebastian
Shi, Hao
Thiery, Wim
Tian, Hanqin
author_facet Ito, Akihiko
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Gädeke, Anne
Ciais, Philippe
Chang, Jinfeng
Chen, Min
François, Louis
Forrest, Matthew
Hickler, Thomas
Ostberg, Sebastian
Shi, Hao
Thiery, Wim
Tian, Hanqin
author_sort Ito, Akihiko
title Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
title_short Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
title_full Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
title_fullStr Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
title_full_unstemmed Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
title_sort pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
publisher Bristol : IOP Publ.
publishDate 2020
url https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10256
https://doi.org/10.34657/9292
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Climate change
Global warming
permafrost
Tundra
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
Global warming
permafrost
Tundra
op_source Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020), Nr. 4
op_rights CC BY 4.0 Unported
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.34657/9292
_version_ 1779311757858177024