Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:Hxc_iIcBdbrxVwz6DqDu 2023-06-06T11:42:46+02:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10321 https://doi.org/10.34657/9357 eng eng [London] : Nature Publishing Group UK CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Nature Communications 11 (2020) carbon dioxide albedo anthropogenic effect arctic environment climate feedback climate modeling cryosphere glacier mass balance global warming ice sheet mountain environment sea ice summer timescale twenty first century cloud greenhouse effect temperature water vapor Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Greenland West Antarctica 500 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9357 2023-04-16T23:19:08Z Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic glacier Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
carbon dioxide albedo anthropogenic effect arctic environment climate feedback climate modeling cryosphere glacier mass balance global warming ice sheet mountain environment sea ice summer timescale twenty first century cloud greenhouse effect temperature water vapor Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Greenland West Antarctica 500 |
spellingShingle |
carbon dioxide albedo anthropogenic effect arctic environment climate feedback climate modeling cryosphere glacier mass balance global warming ice sheet mountain environment sea ice summer timescale twenty first century cloud greenhouse effect temperature water vapor Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Greenland West Antarctica 500 Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
topic_facet |
carbon dioxide albedo anthropogenic effect arctic environment climate feedback climate modeling cryosphere glacier mass balance global warming ice sheet mountain environment sea ice summer timescale twenty first century cloud greenhouse effect temperature water vapor Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Greenland West Antarctica 500 |
description |
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_short |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_sort |
global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice |
publisher |
[London] : Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10321 https://doi.org/10.34657/9357 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic glacier Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic glacier Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica |
op_source |
Nature Communications 11 (2020) |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/9357 |
_version_ |
1767951550763761664 |