The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measuremen...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:DUGVhIgBdbrxVwz6JhD7 2023-06-18T03:37:24+02:00 The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/6972 https://doi.org/10.34657/6019 eng eng Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric chemistry and physics 20 (2020), Nr. 16 aerosol climate modeling cloud condensation nucleus cloud radiative forcing global climate Northern Hemisphere uncertainty analysis Southern Ocean 550 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/6019 2023-06-04T23:21:09Z Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7% using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8% reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20% of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17Wm-2 weaker (less negative) with 95% credible values ranging from-2:51 to-1:17Wm-2 (standard deviation of-2:18 to-1:46Wm-2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. © 2020 Laser Institute of America. All rights reserved. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Antarctic Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
aerosol climate modeling cloud condensation nucleus cloud radiative forcing global climate Northern Hemisphere uncertainty analysis Southern Ocean 550 |
spellingShingle |
aerosol climate modeling cloud condensation nucleus cloud radiative forcing global climate Northern Hemisphere uncertainty analysis Southern Ocean 550 Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
topic_facet |
aerosol climate modeling cloud condensation nucleus cloud radiative forcing global climate Northern Hemisphere uncertainty analysis Southern Ocean 550 |
description |
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7% using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8% reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20% of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17Wm-2 weaker (less negative) with 95% credible values ranging from-2:51 to-1:17Wm-2 (standard deviation of-2:18 to-1:46Wm-2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. © 2020 Laser Institute of America. All rights reserved. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. |
author_facet |
Regayre, Leighton A. Schmale, Julia Johnson, Jill S. Tatzelt, Christian Baccarini, Andrea Henning, Silvia Yoshioka, Masaru Stratmann, Frank Gysel-Beer, Martin Grosvenor, Daniel P. Carslaw, Ken S. |
author_sort |
Regayre, Leighton A. |
title |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_short |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
title_sort |
value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty |
publisher |
Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/6972 https://doi.org/10.34657/6019 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Atmospheric chemistry and physics 20 (2020), Nr. 16 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/6019 |
_version_ |
1769010230514941952 |