Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events

During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events....

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Main Authors: Braun, H., Ditlevsen, P., Kurths, J., Mudelsee, M.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: München : European Geopyhsical Union 2010
Subjects:
550
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.34657/1088
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/620
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spelling ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:CzA874cBdbrxVwz6sbjG 2023-06-11T04:11:14+02:00 Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events Braun, H. Ditlevsen, P. Kurths, J. Mudelsee, M. 2010 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/620 eng eng München : European Geopyhsical Union CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Climate of the Past, Volume 6, Issue 1, Page 85-92 atmosphere-ocean coupling Brownian motion Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle Last Glacial paleoclimate proxy climate record 550 article Text 2010 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 2023-05-07T23:28:54Z During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association)
institution Open Polar
collection LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association)
op_collection_id ftleibnizopen
language English
topic atmosphere-ocean coupling
Brownian motion
Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
Last Glacial
paleoclimate
proxy climate record
550
spellingShingle atmosphere-ocean coupling
Brownian motion
Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
Last Glacial
paleoclimate
proxy climate record
550
Braun, H.
Ditlevsen, P.
Kurths, J.
Mudelsee, M.
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
topic_facet atmosphere-ocean coupling
Brownian motion
Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
Last Glacial
paleoclimate
proxy climate record
550
description During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions. publishedVersion
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Braun, H.
Ditlevsen, P.
Kurths, J.
Mudelsee, M.
author_facet Braun, H.
Ditlevsen, P.
Kurths, J.
Mudelsee, M.
author_sort Braun, H.
title Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
title_short Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
title_full Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
title_fullStr Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
title_full_unstemmed Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
title_sort limitations of red noise in analysing dansgaard-oeschger events
publisher München : European Geopyhsical Union
publishDate 2010
url https://doi.org/10.34657/1088
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/620
genre Dansgaard-Oeschger events
North Atlantic
genre_facet Dansgaard-Oeschger events
North Atlantic
op_source Climate of the Past, Volume 6, Issue 1, Page 85-92
op_rights CC BY 3.0 Unported
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.34657/1088
_version_ 1768386158010564608