Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we qu...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
London : Nature Publishing Group
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/5138 https://doi.org/10.34657/3767 |
id |
ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:BBc_iIcBdbrxVwz6DaD7 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:BBc_iIcBdbrxVwz6DaD7 2023-06-06T11:44:56+02:00 Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.-F. 2018 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/5138 https://doi.org/10.34657/3767 eng eng London : Nature Publishing Group CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Nature Communications 9 (2018), Nr. 1 carbon dioxide carbon emission climate change greenhouse gas ice sheet quantitative analysis sea level change temperature Article carbon footprint environmental decision making environmental temperature global change global climate risk factor sea level rise 360 article Text 2018 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/3767 2023-04-16T23:19:08Z Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
carbon dioxide carbon emission climate change greenhouse gas ice sheet quantitative analysis sea level change temperature Article carbon footprint environmental decision making environmental temperature global change global climate risk factor sea level rise 360 |
spellingShingle |
carbon dioxide carbon emission climate change greenhouse gas ice sheet quantitative analysis sea level change temperature Article carbon footprint environmental decision making environmental temperature global change global climate risk factor sea level rise 360 Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.-F. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
topic_facet |
carbon dioxide carbon emission climate change greenhouse gas ice sheet quantitative analysis sea level change temperature Article carbon footprint environmental decision making environmental temperature global change global climate risk factor sea level rise 360 |
description |
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.-F. |
author_facet |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.-F. |
author_sort |
Mengel, M. |
title |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_short |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_fullStr |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full_unstemmed |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_sort |
committed sea-level rise under the paris agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
publisher |
London : Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/5138 https://doi.org/10.34657/3767 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Communications 9 (2018), Nr. 1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/3767 |
_version_ |
1767964345484967936 |