Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus,...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:0nbfXIkBdbrxVwz6eANt 2023-07-30T04:01:46+02:00 Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study Reinecke, Robert Müller Schmied, Hannes Trautmann, Tim Andersen, Lauren Seaby Burek, Peter Flörke, Martina Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh Döll, Petra 2021 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/8113 https://doi.org/10.34657/7153 eng eng Munich : EGU CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Hydrology and earth system sciences : an interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union 45 (2021), Nr. 2 Global warming Groundwater resources Potable water Uncertainty analysis Vegetation Global circulation model Ground water recharge Groundwater process Groundwater system Hydrological models Multi-model ensemble Simulated ground water Southeastern china Recharging (underground waters) circulation modeling drinking water ensemble forecasting evapotranspiration groundwater flow hydrological modeling irrigation system recharge Arctic Brazil Central America Chile East Africa Europe India Indicator indicator 550 article Text 2021 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/7153 2023-07-16T23:11:49Z Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Global warming Groundwater resources Potable water Uncertainty analysis Vegetation Global circulation model Ground water recharge Groundwater process Groundwater system Hydrological models Multi-model ensemble Simulated ground water Southeastern china Recharging (underground waters) circulation modeling drinking water ensemble forecasting evapotranspiration groundwater flow hydrological modeling irrigation system recharge Arctic Brazil Central America Chile East Africa Europe India Indicator indicator 550 |
spellingShingle |
Global warming Groundwater resources Potable water Uncertainty analysis Vegetation Global circulation model Ground water recharge Groundwater process Groundwater system Hydrological models Multi-model ensemble Simulated ground water Southeastern china Recharging (underground waters) circulation modeling drinking water ensemble forecasting evapotranspiration groundwater flow hydrological modeling irrigation system recharge Arctic Brazil Central America Chile East Africa Europe India Indicator indicator 550 Reinecke, Robert Müller Schmied, Hannes Trautmann, Tim Andersen, Lauren Seaby Burek, Peter Flörke, Martina Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh Döll, Petra Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
topic_facet |
Global warming Groundwater resources Potable water Uncertainty analysis Vegetation Global circulation model Ground water recharge Groundwater process Groundwater system Hydrological models Multi-model ensemble Simulated ground water Southeastern china Recharging (underground waters) circulation modeling drinking water ensemble forecasting evapotranspiration groundwater flow hydrological modeling irrigation system recharge Arctic Brazil Central America Chile East Africa Europe India Indicator indicator 550 |
description |
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reinecke, Robert Müller Schmied, Hannes Trautmann, Tim Andersen, Lauren Seaby Burek, Peter Flörke, Martina Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh Döll, Petra |
author_facet |
Reinecke, Robert Müller Schmied, Hannes Trautmann, Tim Andersen, Lauren Seaby Burek, Peter Flörke, Martina Gosling, Simon N. Grillakis, Manolis Hanasaki, Naota Koutroulis, Aristeidis Pokhrel, Yadu Thiery, Wim Wada, Yoshihide Yusuke, Satoh Döll, Petra |
author_sort |
Reinecke, Robert |
title |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_short |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_full |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
title_sort |
uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study |
publisher |
Munich : EGU |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/8113 https://doi.org/10.34657/7153 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Hydrology and earth system sciences : an interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union 45 (2021), Nr. 2 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/7153 |
_version_ |
1772812524987613184 |