Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane sho...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:0g4xZIcBdbrxVwz67MV0 2023-05-15T17:29:54+02:00 Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja 2023 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/11891 https://doi.org/10.34657/10924 eng eng Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Science Advances 9 (2023), Nr. 1 Annual growth Economic growths Event-based Growth loss Growth models Insurance coverages North Atlantic climate change economic aspect economic development greenhouse effect human hurricane insurance United States 500 article Text 2023 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/10924 2023-04-09T23:14:03Z Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Annual growth Economic growths Event-based Growth loss Growth models Insurance coverages North Atlantic climate change economic aspect economic development greenhouse effect human hurricane insurance United States 500 |
spellingShingle |
Annual growth Economic growths Event-based Growth loss Growth models Insurance coverages North Atlantic climate change economic aspect economic development greenhouse effect human hurricane insurance United States 500 Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
topic_facet |
Annual growth Economic growths Event-based Growth loss Growth models Insurance coverages North Atlantic climate change economic aspect economic development greenhouse effect human hurricane insurance United States 500 |
description |
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_facet |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_sort |
Otto, Christian |
title |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_short |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_fullStr |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_sort |
better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from u.s. hurricanes under global warming |
publisher |
Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/11891 https://doi.org/10.34657/10924 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Science Advances 9 (2023), Nr. 1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/10924 |
_version_ |
1766125137704255488 |