Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike
An important aspect of eruption forecasting is predicting the path of propagating dikes. We show how lateral dike propagation can be forecast using the minimum potential energy principle. We compare theory to observed propagation paths of dikes originating at the Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 201...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2015
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:96992 2023-05-15T16:50:43+02:00 Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike Heimisson, ER Hooper, A Sigmundsson, F 2015-12-28 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/14/Heimisson_et_al-2015-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Solid_Earth.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012402 en eng American Geophysical Union https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/14/Heimisson_et_al-2015-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Solid_Earth.pdf Heimisson, ER, Hooper, A and Sigmundsson, F (2015) Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120 (12). pp. 8774-8792. ISSN 2169-9356 Article NonPeerReviewed 2015 ftleedsuniv https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012402 2023-01-30T21:40:25Z An important aspect of eruption forecasting is predicting the path of propagating dikes. We show how lateral dike propagation can be forecast using the minimum potential energy principle. We compare theory to observed propagation paths of dikes originating at the Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014 and 1996, by developing a probability distribution for the most likely propagation path. The observed propagation paths agree well with the model prediction. We find that topography is very important for the model, and our preferred forecasting model considers its influence on the potential energy change of the crust and magma. We tested the influence of topography by running the model assuming no topography and found that the path of the 2014 dike could not be hindcasted. The results suggest that lateral dike propagation is governed not only by deviatoric stresses but also by pressure gradients and gravitational potential energy. Furthermore, the model predicts the formation of curved dikes around cone-shaped structures without the assumption of a local deviatoric stress field. We suggest that a likely eruption site for a laterally propagating dike is in topographic lows. The method presented here is simple and computationally feasible. Our results indicate that this kind of a model can be applied to mitigate volcanic hazards in regions where the tectonic setting promotes formation of laterally propagating vertical intrusive sheets. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120 12 8774 8792 |
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Open Polar |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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ftleedsuniv |
language |
English |
description |
An important aspect of eruption forecasting is predicting the path of propagating dikes. We show how lateral dike propagation can be forecast using the minimum potential energy principle. We compare theory to observed propagation paths of dikes originating at the Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, in 2014 and 1996, by developing a probability distribution for the most likely propagation path. The observed propagation paths agree well with the model prediction. We find that topography is very important for the model, and our preferred forecasting model considers its influence on the potential energy change of the crust and magma. We tested the influence of topography by running the model assuming no topography and found that the path of the 2014 dike could not be hindcasted. The results suggest that lateral dike propagation is governed not only by deviatoric stresses but also by pressure gradients and gravitational potential energy. Furthermore, the model predicts the formation of curved dikes around cone-shaped structures without the assumption of a local deviatoric stress field. We suggest that a likely eruption site for a laterally propagating dike is in topographic lows. The method presented here is simple and computationally feasible. Our results indicate that this kind of a model can be applied to mitigate volcanic hazards in regions where the tectonic setting promotes formation of laterally propagating vertical intrusive sheets. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Heimisson, ER Hooper, A Sigmundsson, F |
spellingShingle |
Heimisson, ER Hooper, A Sigmundsson, F Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
author_facet |
Heimisson, ER Hooper, A Sigmundsson, F |
author_sort |
Heimisson, ER |
title |
Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
title_short |
Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
title_full |
Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
title_sort |
forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/14/Heimisson_et_al-2015-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Solid_Earth.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012402 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/96992/14/Heimisson_et_al-2015-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Solid_Earth.pdf Heimisson, ER, Hooper, A and Sigmundsson, F (2015) Forecasting the path of a laterally propagating dike. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120 (12). pp. 8774-8792. ISSN 2169-9356 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012402 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
8774 |
op_container_end_page |
8792 |
_version_ |
1766040834813198336 |