Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater futu...
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American Geophysical Union
2021
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:185987 2023-05-15T13:55:51+02:00 Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe‐Ouchi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay‐Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton‐Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Munneke, PK Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscomb, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Rückamp, M Schlegel, N Seroussi, H Shepherd, A 2021-08-28 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Payne%20-%20Future%20Sea%20Level%20Change%20Under%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20Phase%205.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Payne%20-%20Future%20Sea%20Level%20Change%20Under%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20Phase%205.pdf Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe‐Ouchi, A et al. (61 more authors) (2021) Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 cc_by_4 CC-BY Article NonPeerReviewed 2021 ftleedsuniv 2023-01-30T22:46:17Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
op_collection_id |
ftleedsuniv |
language |
English |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe‐Ouchi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay‐Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton‐Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Munneke, PK Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscomb, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Rückamp, M Schlegel, N Seroussi, H Shepherd, A |
spellingShingle |
Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe‐Ouchi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay‐Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton‐Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Munneke, PK Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscomb, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Rückamp, M Schlegel, N Seroussi, H Shepherd, A Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
author_facet |
Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe‐Ouchi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay‐Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton‐Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Munneke, PK Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscomb, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Rückamp, M Schlegel, N Seroussi, H Shepherd, A |
author_sort |
Payne, AJ |
title |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_short |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Payne%20-%20Future%20Sea%20Level%20Change%20Under%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20Phase%205.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/185987/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Payne%20-%20Future%20Sea%20Level%20Change%20Under%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20Phase%205.pdf Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe‐Ouchi, A et al. (61 more authors) (2021) Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766262746161086464 |