Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distri...
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:176714 2023-05-15T13:37:09+02:00 Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Maliniemi, V Nesse Tyssøy, H Smith-Johnsen, C Arsenovic, P Marsh, DR 2021-07-21 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/6/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf en eng Copernicus Publications https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/6/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf Maliniemi, V, Nesse Tyssøy, H, Smith-Johnsen, C et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21 (14). pp. 11041-11052. ISSN 1680-7316 cc_by_4 CC-BY Article NonPeerReviewed 2021 ftleedsuniv 2023-01-30T22:40:16Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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ftleedsuniv |
language |
English |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maliniemi, V Nesse Tyssøy, H Smith-Johnsen, C Arsenovic, P Marsh, DR |
spellingShingle |
Maliniemi, V Nesse Tyssøy, H Smith-Johnsen, C Arsenovic, P Marsh, DR Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
author_facet |
Maliniemi, V Nesse Tyssøy, H Smith-Johnsen, C Arsenovic, P Marsh, DR |
author_sort |
Maliniemi, V |
title |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of enhanced downwelling of nox on antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/6/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/176714/6/acp-21-11041-2021.pdf Maliniemi, V, Nesse Tyssøy, H, Smith-Johnsen, C et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21 (14). pp. 11041-11052. ISSN 1680-7316 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766088657017503744 |