Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions
Severe cold air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy use, agriculture, and transportation. Anomalous behavior of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex provides an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Northern Hemisphere cold air outbreaks. Here, through...
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175553 2023-05-15T15:05:06+02:00 Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions Huang, J Hitchcock, P Maycock, AC McKenna, CM Tian, W 2021-07-23 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/12/s43247-021-00215-6.pdf en eng Nature https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/12/s43247-021-00215-6.pdf Huang, J, Hitchcock, P, Maycock, AC orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127 et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (147). ISSN 2662-4435 cc_by_4 CC-BY Article NonPeerReviewed 2021 ftleedsuniv 2023-01-30T22:39:31Z Severe cold air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy use, agriculture, and transportation. Anomalous behavior of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex provides an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Northern Hemisphere cold air outbreaks. Here, through reanalysis data for the period 1958–2019 and climate model simulations for preindustrial conditions, we show that weak stratospheric polar vortex conditions increase the risk of severe cold air outbreaks in mid-latitude East Asia by 100%, in contrast to only 40% for moderate cold air outbreaks. Such a disproportionate increase is also found in Europe, with an elevated risk persisting more than three weeks. By analysing the stream of polar cold air mass, we show that the polar vortex affects severe cold air outbreaks by modifying the inter-hemispheric transport of cold air mass. Using a novel method to assess Granger causality, we show that the polar vortex provides predictive information regarding severe cold air outbreaks over multiple regions in the Northern Hemisphere, which may help with mitigating their impact. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Human health White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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ftleedsuniv |
language |
English |
description |
Severe cold air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy use, agriculture, and transportation. Anomalous behavior of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex provides an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Northern Hemisphere cold air outbreaks. Here, through reanalysis data for the period 1958–2019 and climate model simulations for preindustrial conditions, we show that weak stratospheric polar vortex conditions increase the risk of severe cold air outbreaks in mid-latitude East Asia by 100%, in contrast to only 40% for moderate cold air outbreaks. Such a disproportionate increase is also found in Europe, with an elevated risk persisting more than three weeks. By analysing the stream of polar cold air mass, we show that the polar vortex affects severe cold air outbreaks by modifying the inter-hemispheric transport of cold air mass. Using a novel method to assess Granger causality, we show that the polar vortex provides predictive information regarding severe cold air outbreaks over multiple regions in the Northern Hemisphere, which may help with mitigating their impact. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huang, J Hitchcock, P Maycock, AC McKenna, CM Tian, W |
spellingShingle |
Huang, J Hitchcock, P Maycock, AC McKenna, CM Tian, W Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
author_facet |
Huang, J Hitchcock, P Maycock, AC McKenna, CM Tian, W |
author_sort |
Huang, J |
title |
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
title_short |
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
title_full |
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
title_fullStr |
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
title_sort |
northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions |
publisher |
Nature |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/12/s43247-021-00215-6.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Human health |
genre_facet |
Arctic Human health |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/175553/12/s43247-021-00215-6.pdf Huang, J, Hitchcock, P, Maycock, AC orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127 et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (147). ISSN 2662-4435 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766336848599187456 |