Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit 'global average temperature' rise to 'well below 2 °C' but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we u...
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:128103 2023-05-15T18:17:50+02:00 Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals Richardson, Mark Cowtan, Kevin Millar, Richard J. 2018-05-01 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/1/Richardson_et_al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748_9326_aab305.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 en eng https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/1/Richardson_et_al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748_9326_aab305.pdf Richardson, Mark, Cowtan, Kevin orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437 and Millar, Richard J. (2018) Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals. Environmental Research Letters. 054004. pp. 1-8. ISSN 1748-9326 cc_by CC-BY Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftleedsuniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 2023-01-30T22:04:21Z The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit 'global average temperature' rise to 'well below 2 °C' but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%-95% range 6%-21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035-2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2). Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Environmental Research Letters 13 5 054004 |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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English |
description |
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit 'global average temperature' rise to 'well below 2 °C' but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%-95% range 6%-21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035-2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richardson, Mark Cowtan, Kevin Millar, Richard J. |
spellingShingle |
Richardson, Mark Cowtan, Kevin Millar, Richard J. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
author_facet |
Richardson, Mark Cowtan, Kevin Millar, Richard J. |
author_sort |
Richardson, Mark |
title |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_short |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_full |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_fullStr |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_sort |
global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/1/Richardson_et_al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748_9326_aab305.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/128103/1/Richardson_et_al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748_9326_aab305.pdf Richardson, Mark, Cowtan, Kevin orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437 and Millar, Richard J. (2018) Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals. Environmental Research Letters. 054004. pp. 1-8. ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054004 |
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1766193192189820928 |