Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Dec...
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Online Access: | https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/7/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 |
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:118182 2023-05-15T13:38:35+02:00 Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Hansen, J. Sato, M. Kharecha, P. Beerling, D. Berner, R. Masson-Delmotte, V. Pagani, M. Raymo, M. Royer, D.L. Zachos, J.C. 2008 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/7/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 en eng Bentham Open https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/7/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. et al. (7 more authors) (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2 (2). pp. 217-231. ISSN 1874-2823 cc_by_nc_3 CC-BY-NC Article PeerReviewed 2008 ftleedsuniv https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 2023-01-30T21:56:22Z Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2 1 217 231 |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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English |
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Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hansen, J. Sato, M. Kharecha, P. Beerling, D. Berner, R. Masson-Delmotte, V. Pagani, M. Raymo, M. Royer, D.L. Zachos, J.C. |
spellingShingle |
Hansen, J. Sato, M. Kharecha, P. Beerling, D. Berner, R. Masson-Delmotte, V. Pagani, M. Raymo, M. Royer, D.L. Zachos, J.C. Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
author_facet |
Hansen, J. Sato, M. Kharecha, P. Beerling, D. Berner, R. Masson-Delmotte, V. Pagani, M. Raymo, M. Royer, D.L. Zachos, J.C. |
author_sort |
Hansen, J. |
title |
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
title_short |
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
title_full |
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
title_fullStr |
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? |
title_sort |
target atmospheric co2: where should humanity aim? |
publisher |
Bentham Open |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/7/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/118182/7/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. et al. (7 more authors) (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2 (2). pp. 217-231. ISSN 1874-2823 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_3 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 |
container_title |
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
217 |
op_container_end_page |
231 |
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1766108560147611648 |