Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

• Published in: Nature Climate Change
• Main Authors: Overland, J.E., Dethloff, K., Francis, J.A., Hall, R.J., Hanna, E., Kim, S.J., Screen, J.A., Shepherd, T.G., Vihma, T.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group 2016
• Subjects: Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/108699/; https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/108699/8/Overland-NatureCC_20JulySubmissionFinalNCLIM-16010138C.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121

Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.