Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate re...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Online Access: | https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/1/Jonesetal_FinalMerged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
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ftleedsuniv:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:101828 2023-05-15T13:49:59+02:00 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate Jones, J.M. Gille, ST. Goosse, H. Abram, N.J. Canziani, P.O. Charman, D.J. Clem, K.R. Crosta, X. de Lavergne, C. Eisenman, I. England, M.H. Fogt, R.L. Frankcombe, L.M. Marshall, G.J. Masson-Delmotte, V. Morrison, A.K. Orsi, A.J. Raphael, M.N. Renwick, J.A. Schneider, D.P. Simpkins, G.R. Steig, E.J. Stenni, B. Swingedouw, D. 2016-09-28 text https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/1/Jonesetal_FinalMerged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 en eng Nature Publishing Group https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/1/Jonesetal_FinalMerged.pdf Jones, J.M. orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-8647 , Gille, ST., Goosse, H. et al. (21 more authors) (2016) Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change, 6. pp. 917-926. ISSN 1758-678X Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftleedsuniv https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 2023-01-30T21:43:57Z Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. However, most observed trends are not unusual when compared with Antarctic paleoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability likely overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) Antarctic Nature Climate Change 6 10 917 926 |
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White Rose Research Online (Universities of Leeds, Sheffield & York) |
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ftleedsuniv |
language |
English |
description |
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. However, most observed trends are not unusual when compared with Antarctic paleoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability likely overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jones, J.M. Gille, ST. Goosse, H. Abram, N.J. Canziani, P.O. Charman, D.J. Clem, K.R. Crosta, X. de Lavergne, C. Eisenman, I. England, M.H. Fogt, R.L. Frankcombe, L.M. Marshall, G.J. Masson-Delmotte, V. Morrison, A.K. Orsi, A.J. Raphael, M.N. Renwick, J.A. Schneider, D.P. Simpkins, G.R. Steig, E.J. Stenni, B. Swingedouw, D. |
spellingShingle |
Jones, J.M. Gille, ST. Goosse, H. Abram, N.J. Canziani, P.O. Charman, D.J. Clem, K.R. Crosta, X. de Lavergne, C. Eisenman, I. England, M.H. Fogt, R.L. Frankcombe, L.M. Marshall, G.J. Masson-Delmotte, V. Morrison, A.K. Orsi, A.J. Raphael, M.N. Renwick, J.A. Schneider, D.P. Simpkins, G.R. Steig, E.J. Stenni, B. Swingedouw, D. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
author_facet |
Jones, J.M. Gille, ST. Goosse, H. Abram, N.J. Canziani, P.O. Charman, D.J. Clem, K.R. Crosta, X. de Lavergne, C. Eisenman, I. England, M.H. Fogt, R.L. Frankcombe, L.M. Marshall, G.J. Masson-Delmotte, V. Morrison, A.K. Orsi, A.J. Raphael, M.N. Renwick, J.A. Schneider, D.P. Simpkins, G.R. Steig, E.J. Stenni, B. Swingedouw, D. |
author_sort |
Jones, J.M. |
title |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_short |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_sort |
assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/ https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/1/Jonesetal_FinalMerged.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/101828/1/Jonesetal_FinalMerged.pdf Jones, J.M. orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-8647 , Gille, ST., Goosse, H. et al. (21 more authors) (2016) Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change, 6. pp. 917-926. ISSN 1758-678X |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
917 |
op_container_end_page |
926 |
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1766252673120600064 |