Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.
To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access. Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 198...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2336/552674 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 |
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ftlandspitaliuni:oai:www.hirsla.lsh.is:2336/552674 2023-05-15T16:45:39+02:00 Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. Thorolfsdottir, Rosa Björk Aspelund, Thor Capewell, Simon Critchley, Julia Gudnason, Vilmundur Andersen, Karl 1 Iceland Heart Assoc, Kopavogur, Iceland 2 Univ Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland 3 Univ Liverpool, Div Publ Hlth, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England 4 Univ London, Dept Populat Hlth Sci & Educ, London, England 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/552674 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 en eng Public Library of Science http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3897505/ PLoS ONE 2014, 9 (1):e85800 1932-6203 24465713 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/552674 PloS one Archived with thanks to PloS one Open Access Kransæðasjúkdómar Dauði Adult Aged Coronary Disease Goals Humans Iceland Middle Aged Mortality Risk Factors Article 2015 ftlandspitaliuni https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 2022-05-29T08:22:05Z To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access. Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Hirsla - Landspítali University Hospital research archive PLoS ONE 9 1 e85800 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Hirsla - Landspítali University Hospital research archive |
op_collection_id |
ftlandspitaliuni |
language |
English |
topic |
Kransæðasjúkdómar Dauði Adult Aged Coronary Disease Goals Humans Iceland Middle Aged Mortality Risk Factors |
spellingShingle |
Kransæðasjúkdómar Dauði Adult Aged Coronary Disease Goals Humans Iceland Middle Aged Mortality Risk Factors Thorolfsdottir, Rosa Björk Aspelund, Thor Capewell, Simon Critchley, Julia Gudnason, Vilmundur Andersen, Karl Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
topic_facet |
Kransæðasjúkdómar Dauði Adult Aged Coronary Disease Goals Humans Iceland Middle Aged Mortality Risk Factors |
description |
To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access. Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future. |
author2 |
1 Iceland Heart Assoc, Kopavogur, Iceland 2 Univ Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland 3 Univ Liverpool, Div Publ Hlth, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England 4 Univ London, Dept Populat Hlth Sci & Educ, London, England |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thorolfsdottir, Rosa Björk Aspelund, Thor Capewell, Simon Critchley, Julia Gudnason, Vilmundur Andersen, Karl |
author_facet |
Thorolfsdottir, Rosa Björk Aspelund, Thor Capewell, Simon Critchley, Julia Gudnason, Vilmundur Andersen, Karl |
author_sort |
Thorolfsdottir, Rosa Björk |
title |
Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
title_short |
Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
title_full |
Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
title_fullStr |
Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
title_sort |
population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2336/552674 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3897505/ PLoS ONE 2014, 9 (1):e85800 1932-6203 24465713 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/552674 PloS one |
op_rights |
Archived with thanks to PloS one Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085800 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e85800 |
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1766035809462386688 |