Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe.
To access publisher's full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field. Influenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be...
Published in: | American Journal of Epidemiology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Oxford University Press
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085 https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 |
id |
ftlandspitaliuni:oai:www.hirsla.lsh.is:2336/302085 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftlandspitaliuni:oai:www.hirsla.lsh.is:2336/302085 2023-05-15T16:43:37+02:00 Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. Weinberger, Daniel M Krause, Tyra Grove Mølbak, Kåre Cliff, Andrew Briem, Haraldur Viboud, Cécile Gottfredsson, Magnus Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. 2013-09-23 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085 https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 en eng Oxford University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/176/7/649 Am. J. Epidemiol. 2012, 176(7):649-55 1476-6256 22962250 doi:10.1093/aje/kws140 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085 American journal of epidemiology Archived with thanks to American journal of epidemiology Landspitali Access - LSH-aðgangur Epidemics Europe Humans Iceland Influenza Human Models Statistical Multivariate Analysis Periodicity Population Surveillance Seasons Travel United States Weather Article 2013 ftlandspitaliuni https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 2022-05-29T08:21:53Z To access publisher's full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field. Influenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations. International Influenza Unit, Office of Global Affairs, Department of Health and Human Services Fulbright Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Hirsla - Landspítali University Hospital research archive American Journal of Epidemiology 176 7 649 655 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Hirsla - Landspítali University Hospital research archive |
op_collection_id |
ftlandspitaliuni |
language |
English |
topic |
Epidemics Europe Humans Iceland Influenza Human Models Statistical Multivariate Analysis Periodicity Population Surveillance Seasons Travel United States Weather |
spellingShingle |
Epidemics Europe Humans Iceland Influenza Human Models Statistical Multivariate Analysis Periodicity Population Surveillance Seasons Travel United States Weather Weinberger, Daniel M Krause, Tyra Grove Mølbak, Kåre Cliff, Andrew Briem, Haraldur Viboud, Cécile Gottfredsson, Magnus Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
topic_facet |
Epidemics Europe Humans Iceland Influenza Human Models Statistical Multivariate Analysis Periodicity Population Surveillance Seasons Travel United States Weather |
description |
To access publisher's full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field. Influenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations. International Influenza Unit, Office of Global Affairs, Department of Health and Human Services Fulbright |
author2 |
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Weinberger, Daniel M Krause, Tyra Grove Mølbak, Kåre Cliff, Andrew Briem, Haraldur Viboud, Cécile Gottfredsson, Magnus |
author_facet |
Weinberger, Daniel M Krause, Tyra Grove Mølbak, Kåre Cliff, Andrew Briem, Haraldur Viboud, Cécile Gottfredsson, Magnus |
author_sort |
Weinberger, Daniel M |
title |
Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
title_short |
Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
title_full |
Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
title_fullStr |
Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe. |
title_sort |
influenza epidemics in iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the united states and europe. |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085 https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/176/7/649 Am. J. Epidemiol. 2012, 176(7):649-55 1476-6256 22962250 doi:10.1093/aje/kws140 http://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085 American journal of epidemiology |
op_rights |
Archived with thanks to American journal of epidemiology Landspitali Access - LSH-aðgangur |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140 |
container_title |
American Journal of Epidemiology |
container_volume |
176 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
649 |
op_container_end_page |
655 |
_version_ |
1766033954746400768 |