自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答
This study showed the frequency of local-scale heavy winter snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan, its historical change, and its response to global warming using self-organizing maps (SOM) of synoptic-scale sea level pressure anomaly. Heavy snowfall days were here defined as days on which the snowfall exceed...
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京都大学防災研究所
2023
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ftkyotouniv:oai:repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp:2433/285619 2023-11-12T04:00:24+01:00 自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 Trends and Climate Change Projection of Heavy Snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan as an Application of Self-organizing Map 稲津, 將 川添, 祥 森, 正人 INATSU, Masaru KAWAZOE, Sho MORI, Masato 2023-03 http://hdl.handle.net/2433/285619 jpn jpn 京都大学防災研究所 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University https://sites.google.com/view/toshikyokutan-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/2433/285619 都市極端気象シンポジウム/台風研究会: 台風・豪雨など極端気象による都市の災害リスク評価に関する研究集会 共同研究(一般研究集会)2022K-01 Workshop on Risk Assessment of Urban Disaster from Typhoon, Heavy Rainfall, and Extreme Weather research report Research Paper 2023 ftkyotouniv 2023-10-26T23:24:47Z This study showed the frequency of local-scale heavy winter snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan, its historical change, and its response to global warming using self-organizing maps (SOM) of synoptic-scale sea level pressure anomaly. Heavy snowfall days were here defined as days on which the snowfall exceeded 10 mm in water equivalent. It was shown that the SOMs can be grouped into three categories for heavy snowfall days: 1) a passage of extratropical cyclones to the south of Hokkaido, 2) a pressure pattern between the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, and 3) a low-pressure anomaly just to the east of Hokkaido. Groups 1 and 2 were associated with heavy snowfall in Hiroo (located in southeastern Hokkaido) and in Iwamizawa (western Hokkaido), respectively, and heavy snowfall in Sapporo (western Hokkaido) was related to group 3. The large-ensemble historical simulation reproduced the observed increasing trend in group 2, and future projections revealed that group 2 was related to a negative phase of the western Pacific pattern and that the frequency of this group would increase in the future. Heavy snowfall days associated with SOM group 2 would also increase as a result of the increase in water vapor and preferable weather patterns in a globally warming climate, in contrast to the decrease of heavy snowfall days at other sites associated with SOM group 1. Report aleutian low Kyoto University Research Information Repository (KURENAI) Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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Kyoto University Research Information Repository (KURENAI) |
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ftkyotouniv |
language |
Japanese |
description |
This study showed the frequency of local-scale heavy winter snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan, its historical change, and its response to global warming using self-organizing maps (SOM) of synoptic-scale sea level pressure anomaly. Heavy snowfall days were here defined as days on which the snowfall exceeded 10 mm in water equivalent. It was shown that the SOMs can be grouped into three categories for heavy snowfall days: 1) a passage of extratropical cyclones to the south of Hokkaido, 2) a pressure pattern between the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, and 3) a low-pressure anomaly just to the east of Hokkaido. Groups 1 and 2 were associated with heavy snowfall in Hiroo (located in southeastern Hokkaido) and in Iwamizawa (western Hokkaido), respectively, and heavy snowfall in Sapporo (western Hokkaido) was related to group 3. The large-ensemble historical simulation reproduced the observed increasing trend in group 2, and future projections revealed that group 2 was related to a negative phase of the western Pacific pattern and that the frequency of this group would increase in the future. Heavy snowfall days associated with SOM group 2 would also increase as a result of the increase in water vapor and preferable weather patterns in a globally warming climate, in contrast to the decrease of heavy snowfall days at other sites associated with SOM group 1. |
author2 |
INATSU, Masaru KAWAZOE, Sho MORI, Masato |
format |
Report |
author |
稲津, 將 川添, 祥 森, 正人 |
spellingShingle |
稲津, 將 川添, 祥 森, 正人 自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
author_facet |
稲津, 將 川添, 祥 森, 正人 |
author_sort |
稲津, 將 |
title |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
title_short |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
title_full |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
title_fullStr |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
title_full_unstemmed |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
title_sort |
自己組織化写像を応用した北海道における豪雪トレンドと気候変動応答 |
publisher |
京都大学防災研究所 |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2433/285619 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low |
genre_facet |
aleutian low |
op_relation |
https://sites.google.com/view/toshikyokutan-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/2433/285619 都市極端気象シンポジウム/台風研究会: 台風・豪雨など極端気象による都市の災害リスク評価に関する研究集会 共同研究(一般研究集会)2022K-01 Workshop on Risk Assessment of Urban Disaster from Typhoon, Heavy Rainfall, and Extreme Weather |
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1782327790314455040 |