成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験
A series of reforecast experiments by using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to investigate the predictability and occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex-splitting event. The po...
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京都大学防災研究所
2014
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ftkyotouniv:oai:repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp:2433/196145 2023-05-15T18:02:14+02:00 成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 Predictability of the Vortex Splitting in the Polar Stratosphere : An Ensemble Reforecast Experiment for 2008/2009 Winter 野口, 峻佑 向川, 均 黒田, 友二 水田, 亮 直江, 寛明 納多, 哲史 藪, 将吉 吉村, 裕正 NOGUCHI, Shunsuke MUKOUGAWA, Hitoshi KURODA, Yuhji MIZUTA, Ryo NAOE, Hiroaki NODA, Satoshi YABU, Shoukichi YOSHIMURA, Hiromasa 20261349 2014-06 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2433/196145 jpn jpn 京都大学防災研究所 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html 0386-412X http://hdl.handle.net/2433/196145 AN00027784 京都大学防災研究所年報. B 57 B 179 186 Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B 予測可能性 アンサンブル予報 成層圏突然昇温 predictability ensemble forecast stratospheric sudden warming 519.9 departmental bulletin paper 2014 ftkyotouniv 2022-01-21T00:18:29Z A series of reforecast experiments by using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to investigate the predictability and occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex-splitting event. The polar vortex splitting is predicted for forecasts initialized after 8 days before the warming peak. It is found that in the failed forecast, the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere are reflected by the polar night jet and propagate downward into the troposphere. Thus, this study indicates that the propagating property of planetary waves in the stratosphere would be another important control factor for the occurrence of the polar vortex-splitting event. A series of reforecast experiments by using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to investigate the predictability and occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex-splitting event. The polar vortex splitting is predicted for forecasts initialized after 8 days before the warming peak. It is found that in the failed forecast, the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere are reflected by the polar night jet and propagate downward into the troposphere. Thus, this study indicates that the propagating property of planetary waves in the stratosphere would be another important control factor for the occurrence of the polar vortex-splitting event. Report polar night Kyoto University Research Information Repository (KURENAI) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Kyoto University Research Information Repository (KURENAI) |
op_collection_id |
ftkyotouniv |
language |
Japanese |
topic |
予測可能性 アンサンブル予報 成層圏突然昇温 predictability ensemble forecast stratospheric sudden warming 519.9 |
spellingShingle |
予測可能性 アンサンブル予報 成層圏突然昇温 predictability ensemble forecast stratospheric sudden warming 519.9 野口, 峻佑 向川, 均 黒田, 友二 水田, 亮 直江, 寛明 納多, 哲史 藪, 将吉 吉村, 裕正 成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
topic_facet |
予測可能性 アンサンブル予報 成層圏突然昇温 predictability ensemble forecast stratospheric sudden warming 519.9 |
description |
A series of reforecast experiments by using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to investigate the predictability and occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex-splitting event. The polar vortex splitting is predicted for forecasts initialized after 8 days before the warming peak. It is found that in the failed forecast, the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere are reflected by the polar night jet and propagate downward into the troposphere. Thus, this study indicates that the propagating property of planetary waves in the stratosphere would be another important control factor for the occurrence of the polar vortex-splitting event. A series of reforecast experiments by using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to investigate the predictability and occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex-splitting event. The polar vortex splitting is predicted for forecasts initialized after 8 days before the warming peak. It is found that in the failed forecast, the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere are reflected by the polar night jet and propagate downward into the troposphere. Thus, this study indicates that the propagating property of planetary waves in the stratosphere would be another important control factor for the occurrence of the polar vortex-splitting event. |
author2 |
NOGUCHI, Shunsuke MUKOUGAWA, Hitoshi KURODA, Yuhji MIZUTA, Ryo NAOE, Hiroaki NODA, Satoshi YABU, Shoukichi YOSHIMURA, Hiromasa 20261349 |
format |
Report |
author |
野口, 峻佑 向川, 均 黒田, 友二 水田, 亮 直江, 寛明 納多, 哲史 藪, 将吉 吉村, 裕正 |
author_facet |
野口, 峻佑 向川, 均 黒田, 友二 水田, 亮 直江, 寛明 納多, 哲史 藪, 将吉 吉村, 裕正 |
author_sort |
野口, 峻佑 |
title |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
title_short |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
title_full |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
title_fullStr |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
title_full_unstemmed |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
title_sort |
成層圏周極渦分裂現象の予測可能性 : 2008/2009年冬のアンサンブル再予報実験 |
publisher |
京都大学防災研究所 |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2433/196145 |
genre |
polar night |
genre_facet |
polar night |
op_relation |
http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html 0386-412X http://hdl.handle.net/2433/196145 AN00027784 京都大学防災研究所年報. B 57 B 179 186 Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B |
_version_ |
1766172020142243840 |