Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B...
Published in: | Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2012
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Online Access: | https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/calibrated-prediction-of-pine-island-glacier-retreat-during-the-21st-and-22nd-centuries-with-a-coupled-flowline-model(d8a92230-84ca-43b4-a2c6-f9e7a569faff).html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84861131423&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftkingscollondon:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/d8a92230-84ca-43b4-a2c6-f9e7a569faff 2023-05-15T13:50:33+02:00 Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model Gladstone, Rupert M. Lee, Victoria Rougier, Jonathan Payne, Antony J. Hellmer, Hartmut Le Brocq, Anne Shepherd, Andrew Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan Cornford, Stephen L. 2012-06-01 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/calibrated-prediction-of-pine-island-glacier-retreat-during-the-21st-and-22nd-centuries-with-a-coupled-flowline-model(d8a92230-84ca-43b4-a2c6-f9e7a569faff).html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84861131423&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Gladstone , R M , Lee , V , Rougier , J , Payne , A J , Hellmer , H , Le Brocq , A , Shepherd , A , Edwards , T L , Gregory , J & Cornford , S L 2012 , ' Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model ' , EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS , vol. 333-334 , pp. 191-199 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 Calibrated prediction Ice sheet modelling Marine ice sheet instability Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic ice sheet article 2012 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 2022-10-14T10:41:02Z A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier King's College, London: Research Portal Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) West Antarctic Ice Sheet Earth and Planetary Science Letters 333-334 191 199 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King's College, London: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftkingscollondon |
language |
English |
topic |
Calibrated prediction Ice sheet modelling Marine ice sheet instability Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic ice sheet |
spellingShingle |
Calibrated prediction Ice sheet modelling Marine ice sheet instability Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic ice sheet Gladstone, Rupert M. Lee, Victoria Rougier, Jonathan Payne, Antony J. Hellmer, Hartmut Le Brocq, Anne Shepherd, Andrew Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan Cornford, Stephen L. Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
topic_facet |
Calibrated prediction Ice sheet modelling Marine ice sheet instability Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic ice sheet |
description |
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gladstone, Rupert M. Lee, Victoria Rougier, Jonathan Payne, Antony J. Hellmer, Hartmut Le Brocq, Anne Shepherd, Andrew Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan Cornford, Stephen L. |
author_facet |
Gladstone, Rupert M. Lee, Victoria Rougier, Jonathan Payne, Antony J. Hellmer, Hartmut Le Brocq, Anne Shepherd, Andrew Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan Cornford, Stephen L. |
author_sort |
Gladstone, Rupert M. |
title |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_short |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_full |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_fullStr |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_sort |
calibrated prediction of pine island glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/calibrated-prediction-of-pine-island-glacier-retreat-during-the-21st-and-22nd-centuries-with-a-coupled-flowline-model(d8a92230-84ca-43b4-a2c6-f9e7a569faff).html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84861131423&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
op_source |
Gladstone , R M , Lee , V , Rougier , J , Payne , A J , Hellmer , H , Le Brocq , A , Shepherd , A , Edwards , T L , Gregory , J & Cornford , S L 2012 , ' Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model ' , EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS , vol. 333-334 , pp. 191-199 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 |
container_title |
Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
container_volume |
333-334 |
container_start_page |
191 |
op_container_end_page |
199 |
_version_ |
1766253677006290944 |