The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marin...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le Clec'H, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin, Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, Van De Wal, Roderik, Van Den Broeke, Michiel
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-future-sealevel-contribution-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet(3da803aa-4536-43f9-bf80-c90745ad501e).html
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092315789&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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op_collection_id ftkingscollondon
language English
description The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le Clec'H, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
Van De Wal, Roderik
Van Den Broeke, Michiel
spellingShingle Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le Clec'H, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
Van De Wal, Roderik
Van Den Broeke, Michiel
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
author_facet Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le Clec'H, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
Van De Wal, Roderik
Van Den Broeke, Michiel
author_sort Goelzer, Heiko
title The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_short The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_fullStr The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full_unstemmed The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_sort future sea-level contribution of the greenland ice sheet:a multi-model ensemble study of ismip6
publishDate 2020
url https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-future-sealevel-contribution-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet(3da803aa-4536-43f9-bf80-c90745ad501e).html
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092315789&partnerID=8YFLogxK
geographic Arctic
Greenland
geographic_facet Arctic
Greenland
genre Arctic
Greenland
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Arctic
Greenland
Ice Sheet
op_source Goelzer , H , Nowicki , S , Payne , A , Larour , E , Seroussi , H , Lipscomb , W H , Gregory , J , Abe-Ouchi , A , Shepherd , A , Simon , E , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Choi , Y , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Edwards , T , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Humbert , A , Huybrechts , P , Le Clec'H , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G , Little , C , Lowry , D , Morlighem , M , Nias , I , Quiquet , A , Rückamp , M , Schlegel , N J , Slater , D A , Smith , R , Straneo , F , Tarasov , L , Van De Wal , R & Van Den Broeke , M 2020 , ' The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet : A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 ' , Cryosphere , vol. 14 , no. 9 , 14-3071-2020 , pp. 3071-3096 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 14
container_issue 9
container_start_page 3071
op_container_end_page 3096
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spelling ftkingscollondon:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/3da803aa-4536-43f9-bf80-c90745ad501e 2023-05-15T15:14:05+02:00 The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet:A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le Clec'H, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev Van De Wal, Roderik Van Den Broeke, Michiel 2020-09-17 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-future-sealevel-contribution-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet(3da803aa-4536-43f9-bf80-c90745ad501e).html https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092315789&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Goelzer , H , Nowicki , S , Payne , A , Larour , E , Seroussi , H , Lipscomb , W H , Gregory , J , Abe-Ouchi , A , Shepherd , A , Simon , E , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Choi , Y , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Edwards , T , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Humbert , A , Huybrechts , P , Le Clec'H , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G , Little , C , Lowry , D , Morlighem , M , Nias , I , Quiquet , A , Rückamp , M , Schlegel , N J , Slater , D A , Smith , R , Straneo , F , Tarasov , L , Van De Wal , R & Van Den Broeke , M 2020 , ' The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet : A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 ' , Cryosphere , vol. 14 , no. 9 , 14-3071-2020 , pp. 3071-3096 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 article 2020 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 2022-10-14T10:48:56Z The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Ice Sheet King's College, London: Research Portal Arctic Greenland The Cryosphere 14 9 3071 3096