Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case, we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This...
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ftkingscollondon:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/2d538b4c-cb90-4eee-bb19-c7e08021e0d2 2023-05-15T16:39:06+02:00 Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan 2011-02 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/climate-tipping-as-a-noisy-bifurcation-a-predictive-technique(2d538b4c-cb90-4eee-bb19-c7e08021e0d2).html https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Thompson , J M T & Sieber , J 2011 , ' Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique ' , IMA JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS , vol. 76 , no. 1 , pp. 27 - 46 . https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 article 2011 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 2022-10-14T10:05:37Z It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case, we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This provides the evolution rate of the effective control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient and the path itself and its tipping point. By assessing the actual effective level of noise in the available time series, we are then able to make probability estimates of the time of tipping. This new technique is applied, first, to the output of a computer simulation for the end of greenhouse Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state with ice caps. Second, we use the algorithms to give probabilistic tipping estimates for the end of the most recent glaciation of the Earth using actual geological ice-core data. Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core King's College, London: Research Portal IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics 76 1 27 46 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King's College, London: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftkingscollondon |
language |
English |
description |
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case, we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This provides the evolution rate of the effective control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient and the path itself and its tipping point. By assessing the actual effective level of noise in the available time series, we are then able to make probability estimates of the time of tipping. This new technique is applied, first, to the output of a computer simulation for the end of greenhouse Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state with ice caps. Second, we use the algorithms to give probabilistic tipping estimates for the end of the most recent glaciation of the Earth using actual geological ice-core data. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan |
spellingShingle |
Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
author_facet |
Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan |
author_sort |
Thompson, J. M. T. |
title |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_short |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_full |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_fullStr |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_sort |
climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/climate-tipping-as-a-noisy-bifurcation-a-predictive-technique(2d538b4c-cb90-4eee-bb19-c7e08021e0d2).html https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
Thompson , J M T & Sieber , J 2011 , ' Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique ' , IMA JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS , vol. 76 , no. 1 , pp. 27 - 46 . https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 |
container_title |
IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics |
container_volume |
76 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
27 |
op_container_end_page |
46 |
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1766029434661371904 |