Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application
We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-...
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2023
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ftkingscollondon:oai:kclpure.kcl.ac.uk:publications/ea3690fa-70a7-44e2-abe0-bda4281501ea 2024-04-28T08:02:45+00:00 Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application Turner, Fiona E. Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin L. Slangen, Aimée B.A. Nicholls, Robert J. Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’Neill, James Adhikari, Mira 2023-12 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/ea3690fa-70a7-44e2-abe0-bda4281501ea https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178960038&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Turner , F E , Malagon Santos , V , Edwards , T L , Slangen , A B A , Nicholls , R J , Le Cozannet , G , O’Neill , J & Adhikari , M 2023 , ' Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application ' , Earth's Future , vol. 11 , no. 12 , e2023EF003550 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 article 2023 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 2024-04-03T14:44:52Z We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet King's College, London: Research Portal Earth's Future 11 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King's College, London: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftkingscollondon |
language |
English |
description |
We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turner, Fiona E. Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin L. Slangen, Aimée B.A. Nicholls, Robert J. Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’Neill, James Adhikari, Mira |
spellingShingle |
Turner, Fiona E. Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin L. Slangen, Aimée B.A. Nicholls, Robert J. Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’Neill, James Adhikari, Mira Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
author_facet |
Turner, Fiona E. Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin L. Slangen, Aimée B.A. Nicholls, Robert J. Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’Neill, James Adhikari, Mira |
author_sort |
Turner, Fiona E. |
title |
Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
title_short |
Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full |
Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
title_fullStr |
Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full_unstemmed |
Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application |
title_sort |
illustrative multi-centennial projections of global mean sea-level rise and their application |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/ea3690fa-70a7-44e2-abe0-bda4281501ea https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178960038&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Turner , F E , Malagon Santos , V , Edwards , T L , Slangen , A B A , Nicholls , R J , Le Cozannet , G , O’Neill , J & Adhikari , M 2023 , ' Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application ' , Earth's Future , vol. 11 , no. 12 , e2023EF003550 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
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1797574030579990528 |