Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from th...
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Online Access: | https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/files/104912334/SLR_R2_v1.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061145650&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftkingscollondon:oai:kclpure.kcl.ac.uk:publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf 2024-06-09T07:40:12+00:00 Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt Golledge, Nicholas R. Keller, Elizabeth D. Gomez, Natalya Naughten, Kaitlin A. Bernales, Jorge Trusel, Luke D. Edwards, Tamsin L. 2019-02-07 application/pdf https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/files/104912334/SLR_R2_v1.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061145650&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Golledge , N R , Keller , E D , Gomez , N , Naughten , K A , Bernales , J , Trusel , L D & Edwards , T L 2019 , ' Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt ' , Nature , vol. 566 , no. 7742 , pp. 65-72 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 article 2019 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 2024-05-15T00:22:58Z Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss. In our simulations, future ice-sheet melt enhances global temperature variability and contributes up to 25 centimetres to sea level by 2100. However, uncertainties in the way in which future changes in ice dynamics are modelled remain, underlining the need for continued observations and comprehensive multi-model assessments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet King's College, London: Research Portal Antarctic Greenland Nature 566 7742 65 72 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King's College, London: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftkingscollondon |
language |
English |
description |
Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss. In our simulations, future ice-sheet melt enhances global temperature variability and contributes up to 25 centimetres to sea level by 2100. However, uncertainties in the way in which future changes in ice dynamics are modelled remain, underlining the need for continued observations and comprehensive multi-model assessments. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Golledge, Nicholas R. Keller, Elizabeth D. Gomez, Natalya Naughten, Kaitlin A. Bernales, Jorge Trusel, Luke D. Edwards, Tamsin L. |
spellingShingle |
Golledge, Nicholas R. Keller, Elizabeth D. Gomez, Natalya Naughten, Kaitlin A. Bernales, Jorge Trusel, Luke D. Edwards, Tamsin L. Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
author_facet |
Golledge, Nicholas R. Keller, Elizabeth D. Gomez, Natalya Naughten, Kaitlin A. Bernales, Jorge Trusel, Luke D. Edwards, Tamsin L. |
author_sort |
Golledge, Nicholas R. |
title |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
title_short |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
title_full |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
title_fullStr |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
title_sort |
global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/files/104912334/SLR_R2_v1.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061145650&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Golledge , N R , Keller , E D , Gomez , N , Naughten , K A , Bernales , J , Trusel , L D & Edwards , T L 2019 , ' Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt ' , Nature , vol. 566 , no. 7742 , pp. 65-72 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 |
op_relation |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/1514ea31-a938-4d65-a5a9-9a2be6fb3faf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 |
container_title |
Nature |
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566 |
container_issue |
7742 |
container_start_page |
65 |
op_container_end_page |
72 |
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1801383667140919296 |