Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater futu...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113571328&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
id |
ftkingscollondon:oai:kclpure.kcl.ac.uk:publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King's College, London: Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftkingscollondon |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica Greenland ice sheet sea level |
spellingShingle |
Antarctica Greenland ice sheet sea level Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
topic_facet |
Antarctica Greenland ice sheet sea level |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Payne, Antony J. |
title |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_short |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113571328&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Payne , A J , Nowicki , S , Abe-Ouchi , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bracegirdle , T J , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Edwards , T L , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Goelzer , H , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Gregory , J M , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huybrechts , P , Jourdain , N C , Kleiner , T , Munneke , P K , Larour , E , Le clec'h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G , Lipscomb , W H , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Morlighem , M , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Reese , R , Rückamp , M , Schlegel , N J , Seroussi , H , Shepherd , A , Simon , E , Slater , D , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets ' , GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , vol. 48 , no. 16 , e2020GL091741 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
op_relation |
https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
16 |
_version_ |
1810490444097781760 |
spelling |
ftkingscollondon:oai:kclpure.kcl.ac.uk:publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff 2024-09-15T17:43:27+00:00 Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2021-08-28 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113571328&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/0e6db510-be83-4715-98cd-7e0088a698ff info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Payne , A J , Nowicki , S , Abe-Ouchi , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bracegirdle , T J , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Edwards , T L , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Goelzer , H , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Gregory , J M , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huybrechts , P , Jourdain , N C , Kleiner , T , Munneke , P K , Larour , E , Le clec'h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G , Lipscomb , W H , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Morlighem , M , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Reese , R , Rückamp , M , Schlegel , N J , Seroussi , H , Shepherd , A , Simon , E , Slater , D , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets ' , GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , vol. 48 , no. 16 , e2020GL091741 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 Antarctica Greenland ice sheet sea level article 2021 ftkingscollondon https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 2024-07-01T23:47:51Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet King's College, London: Research Portal Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |