Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period
Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The s...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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2022
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10754/679618 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb162 |
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/679618 2024-01-07T09:39:52+01:00 Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period Cerovecki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung 2022-06-30 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/679618 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb162 unknown IOP Publishing https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 Cerovecki, I., Sun, R., Bromwich, D. H., Zou, X., Mazloff, M. R., & Wang, S.-H. (2022). Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb162 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters http://hdl.handle.net/10754/679618 Article 2022 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d6610.1088/1748-9326/acb162 2023-12-09T20:19:59Z Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ERA5 global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm-2 in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08°S, 89.67°W, for the time period Jan 2016 - Nov 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm-2 deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm-2 in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing. IC was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC19K1115. DHB, XZ, and SHW were supported by NSF grant 1823135. R.S. was supported by KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) grant OSR-2016-RPP-3268.02. M. R. Mazloff acknowledges support from NASA Grants 80NSSC20K1076 and 80NSSC22K0387, and NSF Grants OCE-1924388, PLR-1425989, OPP-2149501, and OPP-1936222. We also appreciate the computational resources on supercomputer Shaheen II for implementing and testing the coupled model. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Antarctic McMurdo Station ENVELOPE(166.667,166.667,-77.850,-77.850) Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Environmental Research Letters 17 8 084008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftkingabdullahun |
language |
unknown |
description |
Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ERA5 global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm-2 in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08°S, 89.67°W, for the time period Jan 2016 - Nov 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm-2 deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm-2 in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing. IC was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC19K1115. DHB, XZ, and SHW were supported by NSF grant 1823135. R.S. was supported by KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) grant OSR-2016-RPP-3268.02. M. R. Mazloff acknowledges support from NASA Grants 80NSSC20K1076 and 80NSSC22K0387, and NSF Grants OCE-1924388, PLR-1425989, OPP-2149501, and OPP-1936222. We also appreciate the computational resources on supercomputer Shaheen II for implementing and testing the coupled model. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cerovecki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung |
spellingShingle |
Cerovecki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
author_facet |
Cerovecki, Ivana Sun, Rui Bromwich, David H Zou, Xun Mazloff, Matthew R Wang, Sheng-Hung |
author_sort |
Cerovecki, Ivana |
title |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_short |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_full |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_fullStr |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
title_sort |
impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/679618 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb162 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(166.667,166.667,-77.850,-77.850) |
geographic |
Antarctic McMurdo Station Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic McMurdo Station Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 Cerovecki, I., Sun, R., Bromwich, D. H., Zou, X., Mazloff, M. R., & Wang, S.-H. (2022). Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb162 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters http://hdl.handle.net/10754/679618 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d6610.1088/1748-9326/acb162 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084008 |
_version_ |
1787430136890523648 |