Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic
Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macroph...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10754/676236 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/676236 2024-01-07T09:40:36+01:00 Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic Assis, Jorge Serrão, Ester A Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte Marine Science Program Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE) Division CCMAR, CIMAR, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark 2022-03-01 application/pdf application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document http://hdl.handle.net/10754/676236 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 unknown Frontiers Media SA https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368/full Assis, J., Serrão, E. A., Duarte, C. M., Fragkopoulou, E., & Krause-Jensen, D. (2022). Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2-s2.0-85127109210 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science http://hdl.handle.net/10754/676236 9 Archived with thanks to Frontiers in Marine Science under a Creative Commons license, details at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts Article 2022 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2023-12-09T20:18:11Z Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied. This study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021-00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Arctic Bia ENVELOPE(22.891,22.891,70.317,70.317) Frontiers in Marine Science 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftkingabdullahun |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts Assis, Jorge Serrão, Ester A Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
topic_facet |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts |
description |
Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied. This study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021-00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 ... |
author2 |
Marine Science Program Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE) Division CCMAR, CIMAR, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Assis, Jorge Serrão, Ester A Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte |
author_facet |
Assis, Jorge Serrão, Ester A Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte |
author_sort |
Assis, Jorge |
title |
Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
title_short |
Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
title_full |
Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic |
title_sort |
major expansion of marine forests in a warmer arctic |
publisher |
Frontiers Media SA |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/676236 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(22.891,22.891,70.317,70.317) |
geographic |
Arctic Bia |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bia |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368/full Assis, J., Serrão, E. A., Duarte, C. M., Fragkopoulou, E., & Krause-Jensen, D. (2022). Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2-s2.0-85127109210 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science http://hdl.handle.net/10754/676236 9 |
op_rights |
Archived with thanks to Frontiers in Marine Science under a Creative Commons license, details at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
9 |
_version_ |
1787421460318388224 |