Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland
Earthquake ground motion prediction in Iceland where strong-motion data is scarce poses a challenge as empirical ground motion models (GMM) developed from data in other regions systematically fail to capture the consistently large near-fault peak amplitudes and their rapid attenuation with distance...
Published in: | Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Elsevier BV
2020
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10754/664996 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 |
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King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
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ftkingabdullahun |
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description |
Earthquake ground motion prediction in Iceland where strong-motion data is scarce poses a challenge as empirical ground motion models (GMM) developed from data in other regions systematically fail to capture the consistently large near-fault peak amplitudes and their rapid attenuation with distance from the earthquake source. Therefore, regional GMMs must be constructed but due to the limited data, and none above Mw6.5, earthquake source scaling is unconstrained at larger magnitudes. Instead, physics-based GMMs should be applied based on realistic earthquake source modeling. For that purpose, a seismological model constructed around the specific barrier model (SBM) has been calibrated in the context of the stochastic method using random vibration theory, to earthquake high-frequency strong-motions in the South Iceland Seismic Zone. The SBM is used as it provides a physically consistent and efficient description of the heterogeneous faulting processes that are responsible for the generation of high-frequency waves. On the basis of the concise point-source representation of radiated spectra from N subevents of the SBM the pseudo-spectral accelerations were modeled and compared with that of data in the spectral domain. Backwards model selection was then carried out using Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo simulations and Markov Chains. The number of parameters in the model inference was reduced to obtain stable Markov chains and posterior probability density functions for each parameter, eliminating parametric cross-correlations to the extent possible. The seismological model has been shown to be unbiased with respect to strong-motions in the SISZ, with a total standard deviation of 0.216 (common logarithm), with only a minor contribution from inter-event variability, suggesting a relatively uniform character of SISZ earthquake strong-motions. We showcase the application of the SBM extended into a finite-fault and model the three Mw6.3-6.5 earthquakes in the dataset, allowing subevents of varying sizes to populate ... |
author2 |
Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Earthquake Engineering Research Centre & Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Selfoss, Iceland Division of Processing and Research, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sonnemann, Tim Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Jonsson, Sigurjon |
spellingShingle |
Sonnemann, Tim Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Jonsson, Sigurjon Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
author_facet |
Sonnemann, Tim Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Jonsson, Sigurjon |
author_sort |
Sonnemann, Tim |
title |
Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
title_short |
Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
title_full |
Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland |
title_sort |
bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south iceland |
publisher |
Elsevier BV |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/664996 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0267726119309261 Sonnemann, T., Halldorsson, B., Hrafnkelsson, B., & Jónsson, S. (2020). Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 138, 106219. doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 2-s2.0-85089820238 0267-7261 Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 106219 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/664996 138 |
op_rights |
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, [138, , (2020-08-26)] DOI:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 . © 2020. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 2022-08-26 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 |
container_title |
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering |
container_volume |
138 |
container_start_page |
106219 |
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1787425468392144896 |
spelling |
ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/664996 2024-01-07T09:44:08+01:00 Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland Sonnemann, Tim Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Jonsson, Sigurjon Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Earthquake Engineering Research Centre & Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Selfoss, Iceland Division of Processing and Research, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland 2020-09-07T13:40:17Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10754/664996 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 unknown Elsevier BV https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0267726119309261 Sonnemann, T., Halldorsson, B., Hrafnkelsson, B., & Jónsson, S. (2020). Bayesian inference of a physical seismological model for earthquake strong-motion in south Iceland. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 138, 106219. doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 2-s2.0-85089820238 0267-7261 Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 106219 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/664996 138 NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, [138, , (2020-08-26)] DOI:10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 . © 2020. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 2022-08-26 Article 2020 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106219 2023-12-09T20:17:57Z Earthquake ground motion prediction in Iceland where strong-motion data is scarce poses a challenge as empirical ground motion models (GMM) developed from data in other regions systematically fail to capture the consistently large near-fault peak amplitudes and their rapid attenuation with distance from the earthquake source. Therefore, regional GMMs must be constructed but due to the limited data, and none above Mw6.5, earthquake source scaling is unconstrained at larger magnitudes. Instead, physics-based GMMs should be applied based on realistic earthquake source modeling. For that purpose, a seismological model constructed around the specific barrier model (SBM) has been calibrated in the context of the stochastic method using random vibration theory, to earthquake high-frequency strong-motions in the South Iceland Seismic Zone. The SBM is used as it provides a physically consistent and efficient description of the heterogeneous faulting processes that are responsible for the generation of high-frequency waves. On the basis of the concise point-source representation of radiated spectra from N subevents of the SBM the pseudo-spectral accelerations were modeled and compared with that of data in the spectral domain. Backwards model selection was then carried out using Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo simulations and Markov Chains. The number of parameters in the model inference was reduced to obtain stable Markov chains and posterior probability density functions for each parameter, eliminating parametric cross-correlations to the extent possible. The seismological model has been shown to be unbiased with respect to strong-motions in the SISZ, with a total standard deviation of 0.216 (common logarithm), with only a minor contribution from inter-event variability, suggesting a relatively uniform character of SISZ earthquake strong-motions. We showcase the application of the SBM extended into a finite-fault and model the three Mw6.3-6.5 earthquakes in the dataset, allowing subevents of varying sizes to populate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 138 106219 |