Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
Iceland is seismically the most active region in northern Europe. Large single earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 7) and seismic sequences of moderate-to-strong earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 6–6.5) have repeatedly occurred during past centuries in the populated South Iceland Seismic Zone (SIS...
Published in: | Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10754/631608 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 |
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/631608 2023-12-31T10:08:11+01:00 Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation Kowsari, Milad Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Snæbjörnsson, Jónas Þór Jonsson, Sigurjon Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland Division of Processing and Research, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavík, Iceland Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavík University, Reykjavík, Iceland 2019-02-21 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/631608 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 unknown Springer Nature http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 Kowsari M, Halldorsson B, Hrafnkelsson B, Snæbjörnsson JÞ, Jónsson S (2019) Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5. doi:10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 1570-761X 1573-1456 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering http://hdl.handle.net/10754/631608 Iceland Ground motion models Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Seismic hazard Article 2019 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 2023-12-02T20:19:53Z Iceland is seismically the most active region in northern Europe. Large single earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 7) and seismic sequences of moderate-to-strong earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 6–6.5) have repeatedly occurred during past centuries in the populated South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). The seismic hazard in Iceland has mainly been evaluated using ground motion models (GMMs) developed from strong-motion observations in other countries and only to a very limited extent from Icelandic data, despite a particularly rapid attenuation of ground motions with distance in Iceland. In this study, we evaluate the performance of these GMMs against the Icelandic strong-motion dataset, consisting of peak ground accelerations of moderate-to-strong ($$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 5–6.5) and local (0–80 km) earthquakes in the SISZ. We find that these GMMs exhibit both a strong bias against the dataset and a relatively large variability, which calls their applicability and earlier hazard analyses into question. To address this issue, we recalibrate each of the GMMs to the dataset using Bayesian regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows useful prior information of the GMM parameters to be combined with the likelihood of the observed data and provides posterior probability density functions of model residuals and regression parameters. The recalibrated GMMs are unbiased with respect to the data and have a low total standard deviation of around 0.17 (base-10 logarithmic units). The model-to-model variability in the median predictions vary primarily with distance, reaching 0.05 the lowest for $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 6.3–6.5 at intermediate distances. While the lack of near-fault and far-field data, particularly at large magnitudes, and the different functional forms of the GMMs calibrated to the same dataset may affect the results, the recalibrated GMMs should represent well the ground motions of a typical sequence of moderate-to-strong SISZ earthquakes. We present the recalibrated GMMs of this ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 17 6 2841 2870 |
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King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftkingabdullahun |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Iceland Ground motion models Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Seismic hazard |
spellingShingle |
Iceland Ground motion models Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Seismic hazard Kowsari, Milad Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Snæbjörnsson, Jónas Þór Jonsson, Sigurjon Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
topic_facet |
Iceland Ground motion models Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Seismic hazard |
description |
Iceland is seismically the most active region in northern Europe. Large single earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 7) and seismic sequences of moderate-to-strong earthquakes (~ $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 6–6.5) have repeatedly occurred during past centuries in the populated South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). The seismic hazard in Iceland has mainly been evaluated using ground motion models (GMMs) developed from strong-motion observations in other countries and only to a very limited extent from Icelandic data, despite a particularly rapid attenuation of ground motions with distance in Iceland. In this study, we evaluate the performance of these GMMs against the Icelandic strong-motion dataset, consisting of peak ground accelerations of moderate-to-strong ($$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 5–6.5) and local (0–80 km) earthquakes in the SISZ. We find that these GMMs exhibit both a strong bias against the dataset and a relatively large variability, which calls their applicability and earlier hazard analyses into question. To address this issue, we recalibrate each of the GMMs to the dataset using Bayesian regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows useful prior information of the GMM parameters to be combined with the likelihood of the observed data and provides posterior probability density functions of model residuals and regression parameters. The recalibrated GMMs are unbiased with respect to the data and have a low total standard deviation of around 0.17 (base-10 logarithmic units). The model-to-model variability in the median predictions vary primarily with distance, reaching 0.05 the lowest for $$ M_{\text{w}} $$Mw 6.3–6.5 at intermediate distances. While the lack of near-fault and far-field data, particularly at large magnitudes, and the different functional forms of the GMMs calibrated to the same dataset may affect the results, the recalibrated GMMs should represent well the ground motions of a typical sequence of moderate-to-strong SISZ earthquakes. We present the recalibrated GMMs of this ... |
author2 |
Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland Division of Processing and Research, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavík, Iceland Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavík University, Reykjavík, Iceland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kowsari, Milad Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Snæbjörnsson, Jónas Þór Jonsson, Sigurjon |
author_facet |
Kowsari, Milad Halldorsson, Benedikt Hrafnkelsson, Birgir Snæbjörnsson, Jónas Þór Jonsson, Sigurjon |
author_sort |
Kowsari, Milad |
title |
Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
title_short |
Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
title_full |
Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
title_fullStr |
Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation |
title_sort |
calibration of ground motion models to icelandic peak ground acceleration data using bayesian markov chain monte carlo simulation |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/631608 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 Kowsari M, Halldorsson B, Hrafnkelsson B, Snæbjörnsson JÞ, Jónsson S (2019) Calibration of ground motion models to Icelandic peak ground acceleration data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5. doi:10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 1570-761X 1573-1456 Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering http://hdl.handle.net/10754/631608 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00569-5 |
container_title |
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2841 |
op_container_end_page |
2870 |
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1786840824489705472 |