Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP) is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers....
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10754/629722 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003 |
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/629722 2023-12-31T10:20:54+01:00 Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Sato, Tomonori Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change; Islamabad Pakistan Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University; Sapporo Japan 2018-12-04 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10754/629722 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029003 Dogar MM, Sato T (2018) Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003. doi:10.1029/2018jd029003 2169-897X Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres http://hdl.handle.net/10754/629722 Archived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Climate Modes of Variability ENSO NAO Indian summer monsoon MENA Climate Trends Article 2018 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003 2023-12-02T20:22:18Z The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP) is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) output, this study investigates the role of climate trends, and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979-2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain-belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by ITCZ shift and associated cloud distribution. HiRAM slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP, however; overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability. The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia supported the research reported in this publication. The GFDL-HIRAM simulation data can be accessed from http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov:8080/DataPortal/cmip5.jsp. The UDEL observations dataset used in this study is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 23 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftkingabdullahun |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Climate Modes of Variability ENSO NAO Indian summer monsoon MENA Climate Trends |
spellingShingle |
Climate Modes of Variability ENSO NAO Indian summer monsoon MENA Climate Trends Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Sato, Tomonori Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
topic_facet |
Climate Modes of Variability ENSO NAO Indian summer monsoon MENA Climate Trends |
description |
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP) is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) output, this study investigates the role of climate trends, and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979-2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain-belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by ITCZ shift and associated cloud distribution. HiRAM slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP, however; overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability. The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia supported the research reported in this publication. The GFDL-HIRAM simulation data can be accessed from http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov:8080/DataPortal/cmip5.jsp. The UDEL observations dataset used in this study is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, ... |
author2 |
Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change; Islamabad Pakistan Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University; Sapporo Japan |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Sato, Tomonori |
author_facet |
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Sato, Tomonori |
author_sort |
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar |
title |
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
title_short |
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
title_full |
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region |
title_sort |
analysis of climate trends and leading modes of climate variability for mena region |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/629722 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029003 Dogar MM, Sato T (2018) Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003. doi:10.1029/2018jd029003 2169-897X Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres http://hdl.handle.net/10754/629722 |
op_rights |
Archived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029003 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
123 |
container_issue |
23 |
_version_ |
1786831472940810240 |