A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014
Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was...
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/618215 2023-12-31T10:01:53+01:00 A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division Marine Science Program Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), E07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02115, US University of Tromsø, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway 2016-08-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10754/618215 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 en eng Springer Nature http://www.nature.com/articles/srep30682 A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 2016, 6:30682 Scientific Reports doi:10.1038/srep30682 2045-2322 Scientific Reports 27477878 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/618215 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Article 2016 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 2023-12-02T20:18:23Z Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far. The research reported in this Article was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), MINECO (Spain), and FEDER (EU) through project MODASS (FIS2011-24785). We thank Juan Ignacio Cicuendez Pérez and Simon Chesworth for technical assistance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Scientific Reports 6 1 |
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King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
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ftkingabdullahun |
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English |
description |
Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far. The research reported in this Article was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), MINECO (Spain), and FEDER (EU) through project MODASS (FIS2011-24785). We thank Juan Ignacio Cicuendez Pérez and Simon Chesworth for technical assistance. |
author2 |
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division Marine Science Program Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), E07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02115, US University of Tromsø, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. |
spellingShingle |
Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
author_facet |
Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. |
author_sort |
Eguíluz, Victor M. |
title |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_short |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_full |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_fullStr |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_full_unstemmed |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_sort |
quantitative assessment of arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/618215 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep30682 A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 2016, 6:30682 Scientific Reports doi:10.1038/srep30682 2045-2322 Scientific Reports 27477878 http://hdl.handle.net/10754/618215 |
op_rights |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
6 |
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1 |
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1786807582382358528 |