Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Chust, Guillem, Allen, Julian Icarus, Bopp, Laurent, Schrum, Corinna, Holt, Jason T., Tsiaras, Kostas P., Zavatarelli, Marco, Chifflet, Marina, Cannaby, Heather, Dadou, Isabelle C., Daewel, Ute, Wakelin, Sarah L., Machú, Eric, Pushpadas, Dhanya, Butenschön, Momme, Artioli, Yuri, Petihakis, George, Smith, Chris J M, Garçon, Véronique C., Goubanova, Katerina, Le Vu, Briac, Fach, Bettina A., Salihoglu, Baris, Clementi, Emanuela, Irigoien, Xabier
• Other Authors: Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division, Marine Science Program, Plankton ecology Research Group, AZTI Tecnalia, Div Marine Res, Pasaia 20110, Spain, PML, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England, IPSL, LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France, Univ Bergen GFI UIB, Inst Geophys, N-5007 Bergen, Norway, Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England, HCMR, Mavro Lithari 19013, Anavyssos, Greece, Alma Mater Studiorum Univ Bologna, Dipartimento Fis & Astron, I-40127 Bologna, Italy, Alma Mater Studiorum Univ Bologna Sede Ravenna, Ctr Interdipartimentale Ric Sci Ambientali, I-48123 Ravenna, Italy, METU, Inst Marine Sci, TR-33731 Erdemli Mersin, Turkey, UPS, CNRS, CNES, LEGOS,IRD,OMP,UMR5566, F-31400 Toulouse, France, Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, N-5006 Bergen, Norway, UBO, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS,Lab Phys Oceans,UMR6523, F-29280 Plouzane, France
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Wiley 2014
• Subjects: Ecosystem model; Food web; Plankton; Primary production; Sea warming; Trophic amplification; Antarc*; Antarctic; Arctic; Barents Sea; Climate change; Phytoplankton; Zooplankton
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10754/563540; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12562

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when ...