Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models
Static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity. Coseismic stress-change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite-fault source model. These models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data, model assumptions, and modeling pr...
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ftkingabdullahun:oai:repository.kaust.edu.sa:10754/552150 2023-12-31T10:08:23+01:00 Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models Woessner, J. Jonsson, Sigurjon Sudhaus, H. Baumann, C. Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ, Potsdam, Germany 2012-07-14 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552150 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009121 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011JB009121 Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models 2012, 117 (B7) Journal of Geophysical Research doi:10.1029/2011JB009121 0148-0227 Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552150 Archived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research Article 2012 ftkingabdullahun https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009121 2023-12-02T20:19:02Z Static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity. Coseismic stress-change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite-fault source model. These models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data, model assumptions, and modeling procedures. However, fault model uncertainties have usually been ignored in stress-triggering studies and have not been propagated to assess the reliability of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) calculations. We show how these uncertainties can be used to provide confidence intervals for co-seismic ΔCFS-values. We demonstrate this for the MW = 5.9 June 2000 Kleifarvatn earthquake in southwest Iceland and systematically map these uncertainties. A set of 2500 candidate source models from the full posterior fault-parameter distribution was used to compute 2500 ΔCFS maps. We assess the reliability of the ΔCFS-values from the coefficient of variation (CV) and deem ΔCFS-values to be reliable where they are at least twice as large as the standard deviation (CV ≤ 0.5). Unreliable ΔCFS-values are found near the causative fault and between lobes of positive and negative stress change, where a small change in fault strike causes ΔCFS-values to change sign. The most reliable ΔCFS-values are found away from the source fault in the middle of positive and negative ΔCFS-lobes, a likely general pattern. Using the reliability criterion, our results support the static stress-triggering hypothesis. Nevertheless, our analysis also suggests that results from previous stress-triggering studies not considering source model uncertainties may have lead to a biased interpretation of the importance of static stress-triggering. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 117 B7 n/a n/a |
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King Abdullah University of Science and Technology: KAUST Repository |
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Static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity. Coseismic stress-change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite-fault source model. These models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data, model assumptions, and modeling procedures. However, fault model uncertainties have usually been ignored in stress-triggering studies and have not been propagated to assess the reliability of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) calculations. We show how these uncertainties can be used to provide confidence intervals for co-seismic ΔCFS-values. We demonstrate this for the MW = 5.9 June 2000 Kleifarvatn earthquake in southwest Iceland and systematically map these uncertainties. A set of 2500 candidate source models from the full posterior fault-parameter distribution was used to compute 2500 ΔCFS maps. We assess the reliability of the ΔCFS-values from the coefficient of variation (CV) and deem ΔCFS-values to be reliable where they are at least twice as large as the standard deviation (CV ≤ 0.5). Unreliable ΔCFS-values are found near the causative fault and between lobes of positive and negative stress change, where a small change in fault strike causes ΔCFS-values to change sign. The most reliable ΔCFS-values are found away from the source fault in the middle of positive and negative ΔCFS-lobes, a likely general pattern. Using the reliability criterion, our results support the static stress-triggering hypothesis. Nevertheless, our analysis also suggests that results from previous stress-triggering studies not considering source model uncertainties may have lead to a biased interpretation of the importance of static stress-triggering. |
author2 |
Crustal Deformation and InSAR Group Earth Science and Engineering Program Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ, Potsdam, Germany |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Woessner, J. Jonsson, Sigurjon Sudhaus, H. Baumann, C. |
spellingShingle |
Woessner, J. Jonsson, Sigurjon Sudhaus, H. Baumann, C. Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
author_facet |
Woessner, J. Jonsson, Sigurjon Sudhaus, H. Baumann, C. |
author_sort |
Woessner, J. |
title |
Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
title_short |
Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
title_full |
Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
title_fullStr |
Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
title_sort |
reliability of coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552150 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009121 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011JB009121 Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models 2012, 117 (B7) Journal of Geophysical Research doi:10.1029/2011JB009121 0148-0227 Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552150 |
op_rights |
Archived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009121 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |
container_volume |
117 |
container_issue |
B7 |
container_start_page |
n/a |
op_container_end_page |
n/a |
_version_ |
1786841085759193088 |