Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Driscoll, Simon, Bozzo, Alessio, Gray, Lesley J., Robock, Alan, Stenchikov, Georgiy L.
• Other Authors: Earth Science and Engineering Program, Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK, Now at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2012
• Subjects: CMIP5; GCMs; climate dynamics; stratospheric dynamics; volcanic eruptions; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552130; https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017607

The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.