Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input
Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbac...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
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Online Access: | https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/ https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/1/C%20Fogwill%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20to%20enhanced%20regional%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet%20meltwater%20input.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000306 |
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ftkeeleuniv:oai:eprints.keele.ac.uk:3950 2023-07-30T03:56:05+02:00 Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input Fogwill, CJ Phipps, SJ Turney, CSM Golledge, NR 2015-10-15 text https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/ https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/1/C%20Fogwill%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20to%20enhanced%20regional%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet%20meltwater%20input.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000306 en eng Wiley https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/1/C%20Fogwill%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20to%20enhanced%20regional%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet%20meltwater%20input.pdf Fogwill, CJ orcid:0000-0002-6471-1106 , Phipps, SJ, Turney, CSM and Golledge, NR (2015) Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input. Earth's Future, 3 (10). 317 - 329. doi:10.1002/2015EF000306 cc_by_nc_nd_4 G Geography (General) Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftkeeleuniv https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef00030610.1002/2015EF000306 2023-07-10T21:16:04Z Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbacks is key to reducing uncertainty. Here we present a series of climate system model simulations that explore the potential effects of increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) meltwater flux on Southern Ocean dynamics. We project future changes driven by sectors of the WAIS, delivering spatially and temporally variable meltwater flux into the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell embayments over future centuries. Focusing on the Amundsen Sea sector of the WAIS over the next 200 years, we demonstrate that the enhanced meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, resulting in a significant decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This triggers rapid pervasive ocean warming (>1°C) at depth due to advection from the original site(s) of meltwater input. The greatest warming predicted along sectors of the ice sheet that are highly sensitized to ocean forcing, creating a feedback loop that could enhance basal ice shelf melting and grounding line retreat. Given that we do not include the effects of rising CO2 - predicted to further reduce AABW formation - our experiments highlight the urgent need to develop a new generation of fully-coupled ice sheet climate models, that include feedback mechanisms such as this, to reduce uncertainty in climate and sea level projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean Keele University: Keele Research Repository Amundsen Sea Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell West Antarctic Ice Sheet Earth's Future 3 10 317 329 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Keele University: Keele Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftkeeleuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
G Geography (General) |
spellingShingle |
G Geography (General) Fogwill, CJ Phipps, SJ Turney, CSM Golledge, NR Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
topic_facet |
G Geography (General) |
description |
Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbacks is key to reducing uncertainty. Here we present a series of climate system model simulations that explore the potential effects of increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) meltwater flux on Southern Ocean dynamics. We project future changes driven by sectors of the WAIS, delivering spatially and temporally variable meltwater flux into the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell embayments over future centuries. Focusing on the Amundsen Sea sector of the WAIS over the next 200 years, we demonstrate that the enhanced meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, resulting in a significant decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This triggers rapid pervasive ocean warming (>1°C) at depth due to advection from the original site(s) of meltwater input. The greatest warming predicted along sectors of the ice sheet that are highly sensitized to ocean forcing, creating a feedback loop that could enhance basal ice shelf melting and grounding line retreat. Given that we do not include the effects of rising CO2 - predicted to further reduce AABW formation - our experiments highlight the urgent need to develop a new generation of fully-coupled ice sheet climate models, that include feedback mechanisms such as this, to reduce uncertainty in climate and sea level projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fogwill, CJ Phipps, SJ Turney, CSM Golledge, NR |
author_facet |
Fogwill, CJ Phipps, SJ Turney, CSM Golledge, NR |
author_sort |
Fogwill, CJ |
title |
Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
title_short |
Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
title_full |
Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the southern ocean to enhanced regional antarctic ice sheet meltwater input |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/ https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/1/C%20Fogwill%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20to%20enhanced%20regional%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet%20meltwater%20input.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000306 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/3950/1/C%20Fogwill%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20to%20enhanced%20regional%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet%20meltwater%20input.pdf Fogwill, CJ orcid:0000-0002-6471-1106 , Phipps, SJ, Turney, CSM and Golledge, NR (2015) Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input. Earth's Future, 3 (10). 317 - 329. doi:10.1002/2015EF000306 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef00030610.1002/2015EF000306 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
317 |
op_container_end_page |
329 |
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1772810852367335424 |