Forecasts for the fish Migration and Fishing time under Marine Environment Changes based on the ARIMA model

• Published in: 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME)
• Main Authors: Hu, Yuanwei, Pan, Ziyi, Han, Zihao, Lin, Zichao, Tao, Zheng
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Kean Digital Learning Commons 2020
• Subjects: ARIMA model; bootstrap method; fishing area; MATLAB code; migration situation; Faroe Islands; Iceland
• Online Access: https://digitalcommons.kean.edu/keanpublications/1154; https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEMME51517.2020.00074

The validation of using ARIMA model to predict temperature is proved based on the global ocean temperature date monthly from1960 to 2019. According to ARIMA(1,1,0), bootstrap method is used to simulate 10000 possible prediction cases by MATLAB code, which lays a great foundation to predict the migration of fish. Then based on the 10000 temperature change samples generated by bootstrap method in model, migration situation of each sample is simulated to identify the most likely locations of the fish. It was finally shown that the fish are mainly distributed in the area between Iceland and the Faroe Islands 50 years later. Due to technical shortcomings of small fishing companies, if fishing vessels are too far from the continental shelf, they will face problems such as insufficient energy, low safety, and difficulty in keeping fish fresh. Finally, we estimate the elapsed time until the fishermen are unable to catch these two types of fish in their fishing area based on how fast the temperature changes, with the best, worst, and most likely scenarios.