Methods for Calculating the Population Size in Transport Modelling

• Published in: World of Transport and Transportation
• Main Authors: V. N. Myachin, S. V. Tsibro, N. Yu. Semenova, A. A. Baskakova, В. Н. Мячин, С. В. Цибро, Н. Ю. Семенова, А. А. Баскакова
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian; English
• Published: Russian University of Transport (RUT) 2020
• Subjects: демографическая структура населения; transport modelling; feasibility study; demographic structure of the population; транспортное моделирование; технико-экономическое обоснование; Urengoy; Arctic
• Online Access: https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1928; https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2020-18-134-147

The article discusses the problem of choosing a method for calculating the population size for feasibility studies in transport modelling of the design road network of cities in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, using the example of the city of Novy Urengoy. The objective of the study is to determine the optimal method for forecasting the population size to obtain initial data for transport modelling. During development of feasibility studies for the city of Novy Urengoy, features of the demographic structure of the northern cities of the Russian Federation affecting the choice of the method for forecasting the population size were identified. Based on the theoretical analysis of scientific literature, the article discusses various methods of calculating the population, analyses the relationship of the existing demographic structure and its influence on the methods of forecasting the population size for transport modelling. In the context of aggravation of demographic problems of the Russian Federation, it is important to assess the regional features of the prospects for changing the population size. The article suggests recommendations on the use of the method of forecasting the population size, considering regional features of cities founded in 20th century because of development of mineral deposits in the northern regions of the Russian Federation. В статье рассматривается проблема выбора метода расчёта численности населения для технико-экономических обоснований при транспортном моделировании проектной дорожной сети городов северных регионов Российской Федерации на примере города Новый Уренгой. Цель исследования – определить оптимальный метод прогноза численности населения для получения исходных данных транспортного моделирования. При разработке технико-экономических обоснований города Новый Уренгой выявлен ряд особенностей демографической структуры северных городов РФ, которые влияют на выбор метода прогноза численности населения. На основе теоретического анализа научной литературы в статье ...