Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile
BACKGROUND Currently, there is an increasing global interest for the study of how infectious diseases could be linked to climate and weather variability. The Chagas disease was described in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, and is caused by the flagellate protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. The Chagas disease is cons...
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ftjscielo:oai:scielo:S0074-02762019000100329 2023-05-15T13:46:06+02:00 Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile Báez,José C Olivero,Jesús Salazar-Aravena,Lorena E Suazo-Galdames,Iván C 2019-01-01 text/html http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762019000100329 en eng Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde 10.1590/0074-02760180569 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.114 2019 atmospheric teleconnections SOI AAO temporal predictions info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftjscielo 2019-06-16T17:48:21Z BACKGROUND Currently, there is an increasing global interest for the study of how infectious diseases could be linked to climate and weather variability. The Chagas disease was described in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, and is caused by the flagellate protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. The Chagas disease is considered one of the biggest concerns in public health in Latin America. In Chile, the main vectors involved in the transmission of T. cruzi are arthropods of the Triatominae subfamily. Moreover, another main transmission way is through of vectors by fecal-urine way, however, oral way also has been described among others transmission form. OBJECTIVES In order to get understand outbreaks of Chagas-disease, we search for possible relationships between the frequency of cases in the Chilean population and atmospheric oscillations. METHODS We explored the two most important atmospheric oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere: southern oscillation index (SOI) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO), during the available years with official data. Because the number of migrant people born outside from Chile increasing significantively between 2014 and 2018, we used for the analysis two different periods from data available official data: (i) 2001 to 2014, (ii) 2001 to 2017. FINDINGS For both periods we observed a significant and positive relation between AAO one year before. However, for the 2001 to 2014 period positive SOI one year before, which is related with La Niña phases, was the more important variable. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The Chagas disease frequency per year in Chile was found to depend mainly on SOI in previous year, whose values can be determined one year in advance. Therefore, it is possible to partially forecast annual frequency patterns. This could have important applications in public health strategies and for allocating resources for the management of the disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic SciELO Brazil (Scientific Electronic Library Online) Antarctic Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciELO Brazil (Scientific Electronic Library Online) |
op_collection_id |
ftjscielo |
language |
English |
topic |
atmospheric teleconnections SOI AAO temporal predictions |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric teleconnections SOI AAO temporal predictions Báez,José C Olivero,Jesús Salazar-Aravena,Lorena E Suazo-Galdames,Iván C Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
topic_facet |
atmospheric teleconnections SOI AAO temporal predictions |
description |
BACKGROUND Currently, there is an increasing global interest for the study of how infectious diseases could be linked to climate and weather variability. The Chagas disease was described in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, and is caused by the flagellate protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. The Chagas disease is considered one of the biggest concerns in public health in Latin America. In Chile, the main vectors involved in the transmission of T. cruzi are arthropods of the Triatominae subfamily. Moreover, another main transmission way is through of vectors by fecal-urine way, however, oral way also has been described among others transmission form. OBJECTIVES In order to get understand outbreaks of Chagas-disease, we search for possible relationships between the frequency of cases in the Chilean population and atmospheric oscillations. METHODS We explored the two most important atmospheric oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere: southern oscillation index (SOI) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO), during the available years with official data. Because the number of migrant people born outside from Chile increasing significantively between 2014 and 2018, we used for the analysis two different periods from data available official data: (i) 2001 to 2014, (ii) 2001 to 2017. FINDINGS For both periods we observed a significant and positive relation between AAO one year before. However, for the 2001 to 2014 period positive SOI one year before, which is related with La Niña phases, was the more important variable. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The Chagas disease frequency per year in Chile was found to depend mainly on SOI in previous year, whose values can be determined one year in advance. Therefore, it is possible to partially forecast annual frequency patterns. This could have important applications in public health strategies and for allocating resources for the management of the disease. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Báez,José C Olivero,Jesús Salazar-Aravena,Lorena E Suazo-Galdames,Iván C |
author_facet |
Báez,José C Olivero,Jesús Salazar-Aravena,Lorena E Suazo-Galdames,Iván C |
author_sort |
Báez,José C |
title |
Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
title_short |
Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
title_full |
Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
title_fullStr |
Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile |
title_sort |
effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of chagas disease in chile |
publisher |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762019000100329 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Antarctic Soi |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Soi |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.114 2019 |
op_relation |
10.1590/0074-02760180569 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766236992533692416 |