The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment
This paper investigates the world-wide economic cost of rapid sea-level rise of the kind that could be caused by accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic and/or the Greenland ice sheets. Such an event would have direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline and indirect impact...
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ftjrc:oai:publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu:JRC82168 2023-05-15T13:36:37+02:00 The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment PYCROFT Jonathan ABRELL Jan CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos 2015 Online https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC82168 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9 ENG eng SPRINGER JRC82168 2015 ftjrc https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9 2022-05-01T08:18:58Z This paper investigates the world-wide economic cost of rapid sea-level rise of the kind that could be caused by accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic and/or the Greenland ice sheets. Such an event would have direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline and indirect impacts further inland. Using data from the DIVA model on sea floods, river floods, land loss, salinisation and forced migration, we analyse the effects of these damages in a computable general equilibrium model for 25 world regions. We consider three sea-level rise scenarios that correspond to 0.47, 1.12 and 1.75m by the 2080s. By incorporating a wider range of damage categories, implemented in an economy-wide framework and including very rapid sea-level rise, the study offers a new contribution to climate change impact studies. We find that the loss of GDP worldwide is 0.5% in the highest sea-level rise scenario, with a loss of welfare (equivalent variation) of almost 2% world-wide. Within these aggregates, there are large regional disparities, with the Central Europe North region and parts of South-East Asia and South Asia being especially prone to high costs (welfare losses in the range of 4–12 %). The analysis assumes that there is not public adaptation, which would substantially lower the costs. In this way, the analysis demonstrates what is at risk, and could be used to justify adaptation expenses. JRC.J.1 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository Antarctic Greenland Environmental and Resource Economics 64 2 225 253 |
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Open Polar |
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Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository |
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ftjrc |
language |
English |
description |
This paper investigates the world-wide economic cost of rapid sea-level rise of the kind that could be caused by accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic and/or the Greenland ice sheets. Such an event would have direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline and indirect impacts further inland. Using data from the DIVA model on sea floods, river floods, land loss, salinisation and forced migration, we analyse the effects of these damages in a computable general equilibrium model for 25 world regions. We consider three sea-level rise scenarios that correspond to 0.47, 1.12 and 1.75m by the 2080s. By incorporating a wider range of damage categories, implemented in an economy-wide framework and including very rapid sea-level rise, the study offers a new contribution to climate change impact studies. We find that the loss of GDP worldwide is 0.5% in the highest sea-level rise scenario, with a loss of welfare (equivalent variation) of almost 2% world-wide. Within these aggregates, there are large regional disparities, with the Central Europe North region and parts of South-East Asia and South Asia being especially prone to high costs (welfare losses in the range of 4–12 %). The analysis assumes that there is not public adaptation, which would substantially lower the costs. In this way, the analysis demonstrates what is at risk, and could be used to justify adaptation expenses. JRC.J.1 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport |
author |
PYCROFT Jonathan ABRELL Jan CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos |
spellingShingle |
PYCROFT Jonathan ABRELL Jan CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
author_facet |
PYCROFT Jonathan ABRELL Jan CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos |
author_sort |
PYCROFT Jonathan |
title |
The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
title_short |
The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
title_full |
The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
title_fullStr |
The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment |
title_sort |
global impacts of extreme sea-level rise: a comprehensive economic assessment |
publisher |
SPRINGER |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC82168 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_relation |
JRC82168 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9 |
container_title |
Environmental and Resource Economics |
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64 |
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2 |
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225 |
op_container_end_page |
253 |
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1766081792730726400 |