The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide
Recent thinking about the economics of climate change has concerned the appropriate probability distributions of both climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the damages that might occur at high temperatures. Tail-shape is critical, since has important implications for the calculation of the soc...
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Online Access: | https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC82165 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801300157X https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.017 |
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ftjrc:oai:publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu:JRC82165 2024-09-15T18:12:14+00:00 The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide PYCROFT Jonathan VERGANO Lucia HOPE Chris 2014 Online https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC82165 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801300157X https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.017 eng eng ELSEVIER SCI LTD JRC82165 2014 ftjrc https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.017 2024-07-22T04:42:16Z Recent thinking about the economics of climate change has concerned the appropriate probability distributions of both climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the damages that might occur at high temperatures. Tail-shape is critical, since has important implications for the calculation of the social cost of carbon dioxide. In this paper, the importance of low-probability, high-impact events in the social cost of carbon dioxide calculations is extended to incorporate the possibility of rapid sea-level rise. To estimate its impact, the PAGE09 integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially, explicit consideration of rapid increases in sea-level. Results indicate that explicit consideration of the possibility of ice sheet collapse significantly increases the estimate of the damages caused by greenhouse gases emissions. Although the likelihood of ice sheet collapse is uncertain, the possibility should be considered and estimates should be made of the consequences were it to occur. JRC.J.1 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Other/Unknown Material Ice Sheet Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository Global Environmental Change 24 99 107 |
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Open Polar |
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Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository |
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English |
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Recent thinking about the economics of climate change has concerned the appropriate probability distributions of both climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the damages that might occur at high temperatures. Tail-shape is critical, since has important implications for the calculation of the social cost of carbon dioxide. In this paper, the importance of low-probability, high-impact events in the social cost of carbon dioxide calculations is extended to incorporate the possibility of rapid sea-level rise. To estimate its impact, the PAGE09 integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially, explicit consideration of rapid increases in sea-level. Results indicate that explicit consideration of the possibility of ice sheet collapse significantly increases the estimate of the damages caused by greenhouse gases emissions. Although the likelihood of ice sheet collapse is uncertain, the possibility should be considered and estimates should be made of the consequences were it to occur. JRC.J.1 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport |
author |
PYCROFT Jonathan VERGANO Lucia HOPE Chris |
spellingShingle |
PYCROFT Jonathan VERGANO Lucia HOPE Chris The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
author_facet |
PYCROFT Jonathan VERGANO Lucia HOPE Chris |
author_sort |
PYCROFT Jonathan |
title |
The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
title_short |
The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
title_full |
The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
title_fullStr |
The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
title_full_unstemmed |
The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
title_sort |
economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
publisher |
ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC82165 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801300157X https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.017 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
JRC82165 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.017 |
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Global Environmental Change |
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24 |
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99 |
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107 |
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1810449823734693888 |