Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems
Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intricate policy scenarios where multiple species, pressures, and ecosystem services interact. Complex questions often return complex answers, necessitating evidence and advice to be communicated in terms of trade-of...
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OXFORD UNIV PRESS
2024
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ftjrc:oai:publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu:JRC136031 2024-04-28T08:32:45+00:00 Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems BENTLEY Jacob CHAGARIS David COLL Marta HEYMANS Johanna J. SERPETTI Natalia WALTERS Carl CHRISTENSEN Villy 2024 Online https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136031 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 eng eng OXFORD UNIV PRESS JRC136031 2024 ftjrc https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 2024-04-08T05:31:06Z Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intricate policy scenarios where multiple species, pressures, and ecosystem services interact. Complex questions often return complex answers, necessitating evidence and advice to be communicated in terms of trade-offs, risks, and uncertainty. Calibration procedures for EwE, which can act as a source of uncertainty and bias in model results, have yet to be explored in a comprehensive way that communicates how sensitive model outputs are to different calibration approaches. As the EwE community has grown, multiple divergent approaches have been applied to calibrate models through the estimation of vulnerability multipliers: parameters that augment the consumption rate limits of predators. Here we explore the underlying principles of vulnerability multipliers as well as existing calibration approaches and their justification. Two case studies are presented: the first explores how vulnerability multipliers emerge based on the chosen calibration approach using simulated data, while the second takes two operational EwE models (Irish Sea and Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf) and compares their outputs when calibrated following alternate calibration approaches. We show how calibration approaches can impact model-derived advice and provide a list of best practice recommendations for EwE calibration. JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Water Other/Unknown Material Northwest Atlantic Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository ICES Journal of Marine Science 81 2 260 275 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository |
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ftjrc |
language |
English |
description |
Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intricate policy scenarios where multiple species, pressures, and ecosystem services interact. Complex questions often return complex answers, necessitating evidence and advice to be communicated in terms of trade-offs, risks, and uncertainty. Calibration procedures for EwE, which can act as a source of uncertainty and bias in model results, have yet to be explored in a comprehensive way that communicates how sensitive model outputs are to different calibration approaches. As the EwE community has grown, multiple divergent approaches have been applied to calibrate models through the estimation of vulnerability multipliers: parameters that augment the consumption rate limits of predators. Here we explore the underlying principles of vulnerability multipliers as well as existing calibration approaches and their justification. Two case studies are presented: the first explores how vulnerability multipliers emerge based on the chosen calibration approach using simulated data, while the second takes two operational EwE models (Irish Sea and Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf) and compares their outputs when calibrated following alternate calibration approaches. We show how calibration approaches can impact model-derived advice and provide a list of best practice recommendations for EwE calibration. JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Water |
author |
BENTLEY Jacob CHAGARIS David COLL Marta HEYMANS Johanna J. SERPETTI Natalia WALTERS Carl CHRISTENSEN Villy |
spellingShingle |
BENTLEY Jacob CHAGARIS David COLL Marta HEYMANS Johanna J. SERPETTI Natalia WALTERS Carl CHRISTENSEN Villy Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
author_facet |
BENTLEY Jacob CHAGARIS David COLL Marta HEYMANS Johanna J. SERPETTI Natalia WALTERS Carl CHRISTENSEN Villy |
author_sort |
BENTLEY Jacob |
title |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_short |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_full |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_fullStr |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_sort |
calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
publisher |
OXFORD UNIV PRESS |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136031 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_relation |
JRC136031 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
81 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
260 |
op_container_end_page |
275 |
_version_ |
1797589829973704704 |