Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review
Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresh- olds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Shee...
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COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
2024
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Online Access: | https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134198 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
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ftjrc:oai:publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu:JRC134198 2024-09-09T19:43:29+00:00 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review WUNDERLING Nico VON DER HEYDT Anna AKSENOV Yevgeny BARKER Stephen BASTIAANSEN Robbin BROVKIN Victor BRUNETTI Maura COUPLET Victor KLEINEN Thomas LEAR Caroline LOHMANN Johannes ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria SINET Sacha SWINGEDOUW Didier WINKELMANN Ricarda ANAND Pallavi BARICHIVICH Jonathan BATHIANY Sebastian BAUDENA Mara BRUUN John CHIESSI Cristiano M COXALL Helen DOCQUIER David DONGES Jonathan FALKENA Swinda KLOSE Ann Kristin OBURA David ROCHA Juan RYNDERS Stefanie STEINERT Norman Julius WILLEIT Matteo 2024 Online https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134198 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 eng eng COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH JRC134198 2024 ftjrc https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 2024-07-08T23:40:34Z Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresh- olds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. JRC.D.1 - Forests and Bio-Economy Other/Unknown Material Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository Greenland Earth System Dynamics 15 1 41 74 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Joint Research Centre, European Commission: JRC Publications Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftjrc |
language |
English |
description |
Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresh- olds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. JRC.D.1 - Forests and Bio-Economy |
author |
WUNDERLING Nico VON DER HEYDT Anna AKSENOV Yevgeny BARKER Stephen BASTIAANSEN Robbin BROVKIN Victor BRUNETTI Maura COUPLET Victor KLEINEN Thomas LEAR Caroline LOHMANN Johannes ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria SINET Sacha SWINGEDOUW Didier WINKELMANN Ricarda ANAND Pallavi BARICHIVICH Jonathan BATHIANY Sebastian BAUDENA Mara BRUUN John CHIESSI Cristiano M COXALL Helen DOCQUIER David DONGES Jonathan FALKENA Swinda KLOSE Ann Kristin OBURA David ROCHA Juan RYNDERS Stefanie STEINERT Norman Julius WILLEIT Matteo |
spellingShingle |
WUNDERLING Nico VON DER HEYDT Anna AKSENOV Yevgeny BARKER Stephen BASTIAANSEN Robbin BROVKIN Victor BRUNETTI Maura COUPLET Victor KLEINEN Thomas LEAR Caroline LOHMANN Johannes ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria SINET Sacha SWINGEDOUW Didier WINKELMANN Ricarda ANAND Pallavi BARICHIVICH Jonathan BATHIANY Sebastian BAUDENA Mara BRUUN John CHIESSI Cristiano M COXALL Helen DOCQUIER David DONGES Jonathan FALKENA Swinda KLOSE Ann Kristin OBURA David ROCHA Juan RYNDERS Stefanie STEINERT Norman Julius WILLEIT Matteo Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
author_facet |
WUNDERLING Nico VON DER HEYDT Anna AKSENOV Yevgeny BARKER Stephen BASTIAANSEN Robbin BROVKIN Victor BRUNETTI Maura COUPLET Victor KLEINEN Thomas LEAR Caroline LOHMANN Johannes ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria SINET Sacha SWINGEDOUW Didier WINKELMANN Ricarda ANAND Pallavi BARICHIVICH Jonathan BATHIANY Sebastian BAUDENA Mara BRUUN John CHIESSI Cristiano M COXALL Helen DOCQUIER David DONGES Jonathan FALKENA Swinda KLOSE Ann Kristin OBURA David ROCHA Juan RYNDERS Stefanie STEINERT Norman Julius WILLEIT Matteo |
author_sort |
WUNDERLING Nico |
title |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
title_short |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
title_full |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
title_fullStr |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review |
title_sort |
climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
publisher |
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134198 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
op_relation |
JRC134198 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
41 |
op_container_end_page |
74 |
_version_ |
1809912912213442560 |