| Summary: | The state of the national economy resulting from the war with the russian federation, apart from economic losses, has led to significant ecological catastrophes in hydro ecosystems. For contemporary researchers in the field of environmental and hydroecological system studies in Ukraine, new challenges have arisen in conducting research in the face of external threats. Therefore, the use of modern research methods with mathematical tools allows for the prediction of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the studied environmental objects. The application of modern economic-mathematical modeling tools has allowed for the forecasting of the content of ammonia in water bodies of the Ternopil region for continuous monitoring and improvement of the situation, as well as the reduction of harmful substances in the water supply of the town of Lanivtsi. The data from the conducted modeling have been analyzed under the condition of the content of ammonium ions NH4+ in the water body: as the content of ammonium ions NH4+ increases, the acidity (pH) also increases, and when the content of ammonium ions NH4+ decreases, the acidity (pH) decreases. The presented results of modeling demonstrate that the lowest concentration of ammonium ions NH4+ is possible at the fifth probabilistic stage of research from the beginning of measurements with indicators: 1.1302; 1.0307; 0.7912; 1.1566. In this context, in such a ratio of ammonium NH4+ content, the pH value will be in the range of 7.30±0.03 (the water is weakly alkaline, promoting the presence of carbonic acid in the form of bicarbonate ions, ensuring an environmentally acceptable gas regime in the water), since it is at this stage of research that the concentration of ammonium is the lowest. The use of the methodology of economic-mathematical modeling based on the theory of Markov chains has allowed determining the probability of forecast values of ammonium NH4+ ion content and hydrogen indicator (pH) of the studied water body for the nearest periods. The use of modern ...
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