Offshore Energy Geopolitics: An Examination of Emerging Risks to Future Oil and Gas Activities in Hotspot Maritime Regions

• Main Author: Fagley, Erik Mason
• Other Authors: Stout, Mark, O'Byrne, Sarah, Blackwelder, Brent
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Johns Hopkins University 2014
• Subjects: energy geopolitics; offshore oil and gas development; energy security; risk analysis; Arctic
• Online Access: http://jhir.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/37277

As the world’s conventional oil and gas fields decline, the oil and gas industry seeks to exploit new sources of energy to satisfy demand and promote economic growth. The most promising geographical regions left to explore are offshore waters that contain a substantial reserve base that contain decades of supply. Although offshore development is not new, certain regions slated for production are vulnerable to a wide-array of risks that might derail future activity. The examination of these risks is a timely study given its relevance to energy security and the ever-increasing vulnerabilities in maritime regions. To better explain the offshore energy geopolitical landscape, this thesis explores three regions – the South China Sea, Arctic, and the Gulf of Guinea. Each region typifies political, legal, economic and environmental risks associated with offshore development; however, each region is faced with markedly different risks to future operations. Whether this includes territorial disputes between claimants over control of seabed resources in the South China Sea, the absence of an effective framework to govern and regulate offshore activities in the Arctic, or the emergence of oil theft and maritime piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, each chapter highlights the importance of addressing these risks. In response, the thesis provides mitigating strategies and policy recommendations to alleviate tensions, resolve gaps in governance and regulation and combat maritime piracy. The thesis makes clear that if offshore development is to reach its potential, national governments, the private sector, and the international community must address such risks with resoluteness to enhance global energy security and effectively combat new forms of volatility.