Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications
We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over...
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Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
2022
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Online Access: | https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315 https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 |
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ftjgeusbullet:oai:geusjournals.org:article/8315 2023-05-15T13:45:57+02:00 Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications Colgan, William Henriksen, Hans Jørgen Bennike, Ole Riberio, Sofia Keiding, Marie Karlsson Seidenfaden, Ida Graversgaard, Morten Busck, Anne Gravsholt Fruergaard, Mikkel Knudsen, Michael Helt Hopper, John Sonnenborg, Torben Skjerbæk, Maria Rebekka Bjørk, Anders Anker Steffen, Holger Tarasov, Lev Nerem, R. Steven Kjeldsen, Kristian K. Denmark 2022-10-05 application/pdf text/html text/xml application/epub+zip https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315 https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 eng eng Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14298 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14295 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14297 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14296 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315 doi:10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 Copyright (c) 2022 William Colgan, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ole Bennike, Sofia Riberio, Marie Keiding, Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Morten Graversgaard, Anne Gravsholt Busck, Mikkel Fruergaard, Michael Helt Knudsen, John Hopper, Torben Sonnenborg, Maria Rebekka Skjerbæk, Anders Anker Bjørk, Holger Steffen, Lev Tarasov, R. Steven Nerem, Kristian K. Kjeldsen https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY GEUS Bulletin; Vol. 49 (2022): Annual Volume 2022 2597-2154 2597-2162 projection Denmark coast sea level climate scenario info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article. 2022 ftjgeusbullet https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 2023-02-08T23:53:19Z We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), while changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet GEUS Bulletin (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland) Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet GEUS Bulletin 49 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GEUS Bulletin (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland) |
op_collection_id |
ftjgeusbullet |
language |
English |
topic |
projection Denmark coast sea level climate scenario |
spellingShingle |
projection Denmark coast sea level climate scenario Colgan, William Henriksen, Hans Jørgen Bennike, Ole Riberio, Sofia Keiding, Marie Karlsson Seidenfaden, Ida Graversgaard, Morten Busck, Anne Gravsholt Fruergaard, Mikkel Knudsen, Michael Helt Hopper, John Sonnenborg, Torben Skjerbæk, Maria Rebekka Bjørk, Anders Anker Steffen, Holger Tarasov, Lev Nerem, R. Steven Kjeldsen, Kristian K. Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
topic_facet |
projection Denmark coast sea level climate scenario |
description |
We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), while changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Colgan, William Henriksen, Hans Jørgen Bennike, Ole Riberio, Sofia Keiding, Marie Karlsson Seidenfaden, Ida Graversgaard, Morten Busck, Anne Gravsholt Fruergaard, Mikkel Knudsen, Michael Helt Hopper, John Sonnenborg, Torben Skjerbæk, Maria Rebekka Bjørk, Anders Anker Steffen, Holger Tarasov, Lev Nerem, R. Steven Kjeldsen, Kristian K. |
author_facet |
Colgan, William Henriksen, Hans Jørgen Bennike, Ole Riberio, Sofia Keiding, Marie Karlsson Seidenfaden, Ida Graversgaard, Morten Busck, Anne Gravsholt Fruergaard, Mikkel Knudsen, Michael Helt Hopper, John Sonnenborg, Torben Skjerbæk, Maria Rebekka Bjørk, Anders Anker Steffen, Holger Tarasov, Lev Nerem, R. Steven Kjeldsen, Kristian K. |
author_sort |
Colgan, William |
title |
Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
title_short |
Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
title_full |
Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
title_fullStr |
Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
title_sort |
sea-level rise in denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications |
publisher |
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315 https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 |
op_coverage |
Denmark |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
GEUS Bulletin; Vol. 49 (2022): Annual Volume 2022 2597-2154 2597-2162 |
op_relation |
https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14298 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14295 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14297 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315/14296 https://geusbulletin.org/index.php/geusb/article/view/8315 doi:10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 |
op_rights |
Copyright (c) 2022 William Colgan, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ole Bennike, Sofia Riberio, Marie Keiding, Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Morten Graversgaard, Anne Gravsholt Busck, Mikkel Fruergaard, Michael Helt Knudsen, John Hopper, Torben Sonnenborg, Maria Rebekka Skjerbæk, Anders Anker Bjørk, Holger Steffen, Lev Tarasov, R. Steven Nerem, Kristian K. Kjeldsen https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315 |
container_title |
GEUS Bulletin |
container_volume |
49 |
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1766233705035071488 |