Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East
The south of the Russian Far East is distinguished by diversity of natural conditions for the presence of vectors and circulation of pathogens, primarily tick-borne infections. Despite the relatively low proportion of tick-borne encephalitis in the structure of tick-borne infections and the rather l...
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Russian Geographical Society
2024
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Online Access: | https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323 https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2023-3117 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Geography, Environment, Sustainability |
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ftjges |
language |
English |
topic |
GIS GeoDa endemic areas space-time clusters modeling |
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GIS GeoDa endemic areas space-time clusters modeling Natalia V. Shartova Fedor I. Korennoy Tamara V. Vatlina Dmitry S. Orlov V. A. Mironova Hairong Lee Wang Li S. M. Malkhazova Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
topic_facet |
GIS GeoDa endemic areas space-time clusters modeling |
description |
The south of the Russian Far East is distinguished by diversity of natural conditions for the presence of vectors and circulation of pathogens, primarily tick-borne infections. Despite the relatively low proportion of tick-borne encephalitis in the structure of tick-borne infections and the rather low incidence rate compared to other Russian regions, the disease here has epidemiological significance, which is associated with its severe course. Therefore, it is important to identify local areas of greatest epidemic manifestation of the disease and potential drivers influencing the spread of tick-borne encephalitis. This study uses data on population incidence in the municipal districts of Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast, Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Zabaikalsky Krai between 2000 and 2020. Based on Kulldorf spatial scanning statistics, a temporally stable cluster of virus circulation in the population in the southwest of Zabaikalsky Krai was identified, which existed during 2009-2018. Regression modeling using zero-inflated negative binomial regression based on a set of environmental and socio-economic predictors allowed to identify variables determining the probability of infection: the share of forest, the amount of precipitation in the warm period, population density, as well as variables reflecting population employment and socio-economic well-being. Despite the fact that tick-borne encephalitis is a natural focal disease and may be characterized by natural periods of increased incidence, the influence of the social component can have a strong impact on the epidemiological manifestation. The identified spatio-temporal differences within the study region and potential drivers must be taken into account when developing a set of preventive measures. |
author2 |
Spatio-temporal and regression analyzes were carried out with the support of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 21–47–00016) and preliminary data analysis was carried out at the expense of the Moscow State University Development Program (P. 1220). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Natalia V. Shartova Fedor I. Korennoy Tamara V. Vatlina Dmitry S. Orlov V. A. Mironova Hairong Lee Wang Li S. M. Malkhazova |
author_facet |
Natalia V. Shartova Fedor I. Korennoy Tamara V. Vatlina Dmitry S. Orlov V. A. Mironova Hairong Lee Wang Li S. M. Malkhazova |
author_sort |
Natalia V. Shartova |
title |
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East |
title_sort |
spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of russian far east |
publisher |
Russian Geographical Society |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323 https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2023-3117 |
genre |
Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
genre_facet |
Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
op_source |
GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY; Vol 17, No 1 (2024); 6-15 2542-1565 2071-9388 |
op_relation |
https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323/756 Andaev E.I., Nikitin A.Y., Yatsmenko E.V., Verigina E.V., Tolmacheva M.I., Ayugin N.I., Matveeva V.A., Balakhonov S.V. (2021). Tendencii razvitiya epidemicheskogo processa kleshchevogo virusnogo encefalita v Rossijskoj Federacii, laboratornaya diagnostika, profilaktika i prognoz na 2021 g. (Trends in Epidemic Process Development of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Russian Federation, Laboratory Diagnosis, Prophylaxis and Forecast for 2021). Problemy osobo opasnyh infekcij, 1:6-16. DOI:10.21055/0370-1069-2021-1-6-16 (in Russian). Anselin L. (1995). Local Indicators of Spatial Association – LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93–115. Anselin L., Ibnu S., Youngihn K. (2006). GeoDa: An Introduction to Spatial Data Analysis. Geographical Analysis, 38 (1), 5-22. Beck H., Zimmermann N., McVicar T. et al. (2018). Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Sci Data 5, 180214, DOI:10.1038/sdata.2018.214. Brabec M, Daniel M, Malý M, Danielová V, Kříž B, et al. (2017). Analysis of meteorological effects on the incidence of tickborne encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a thirty-year period. Virol Res Rev, 1(1): 1-8. DOI:10.15761/VRR.1000103. Brown C.F., Brumby S.P., Guzder-Williams B. et al. (2022). Dynamic World, Near real-time global 10 m land use land cover mapping. Sci Data 9, 251. DOI:10.1038/s41597-022-01307-4. Burri C., Bastic V., Maeder G., Patalas E., Gern L. (2011). Microclimate and the zoonotic cycle of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Switzerland. J Med Entomol, 48: 615–627. Cagnacci F., Bolzoni L., Rosà R., Carpi G., Hauffe H.C. et al. (2012). Effects of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. I: Empirical assessment. Int J Parasitol, 42: 365–372. Chen X, Li F, Yin Q, Liu W, Fu S, He Y, et al. (2019). Epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis in China, 2007- 2018. 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https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2023-311710.21055/0370-1069-2021-1-6-1610.1038/sdata.2018.21410.15761/VRR.100010310.1038/s41597-022-01307-410.1371/journal.pone.022671210.1099/0022-1317-80-1-17910.1017/CBO9780511973420.01010.1016/j.ttbdis.2019.04.01910. |
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ftjges:oai:oai.gesj.elpub.ru:article/3323 2024-04-28T08:05:11+00:00 Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the south of Russian Far East Natalia V. Shartova Fedor I. Korennoy Tamara V. Vatlina Dmitry S. Orlov V. A. Mironova Hairong Lee Wang Li S. M. Malkhazova Spatio-temporal and regression analyzes were carried out with the support of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 21–47–00016) and preliminary data analysis was carried out at the expense of the Moscow State University Development Program (P. 1220). 2024-04-03 application/pdf https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323 https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2023-3117 eng eng Russian Geographical Society https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323/756 Andaev E.I., Nikitin A.Y., Yatsmenko E.V., Verigina E.V., Tolmacheva M.I., Ayugin N.I., Matveeva V.A., Balakhonov S.V. (2021). Tendencii razvitiya epidemicheskogo processa kleshchevogo virusnogo encefalita v Rossijskoj Federacii, laboratornaya diagnostika, profilaktika i prognoz na 2021 g. (Trends in Epidemic Process Development of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Russian Federation, Laboratory Diagnosis, Prophylaxis and Forecast for 2021). Problemy osobo opasnyh infekcij, 1:6-16. DOI:10.21055/0370-1069-2021-1-6-16 (in Russian). Anselin L. (1995). Local Indicators of Spatial Association – LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93–115. Anselin L., Ibnu S., Youngihn K. (2006). GeoDa: An Introduction to Spatial Data Analysis. Geographical Analysis, 38 (1), 5-22. Beck H., Zimmermann N., McVicar T. et al. (2018). Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Sci Data 5, 180214, DOI:10.1038/sdata.2018.214. Brabec M, Daniel M, Malý M, Danielová V, Kříž B, et al. (2017). Analysis of meteorological effects on the incidence of tickborne encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a thirty-year period. Virol Res Rev, 1(1): 1-8. DOI:10.15761/VRR.1000103. Brown C.F., Brumby S.P., Guzder-Williams B. et al. (2022). Dynamic World, Near real-time global 10 m land use land cover mapping. Sci Data 9, 251. DOI:10.1038/s41597-022-01307-4. Burri C., Bastic V., Maeder G., Patalas E., Gern L. (2011). Microclimate and the zoonotic cycle of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Switzerland. J Med Entomol, 48: 615–627. Cagnacci F., Bolzoni L., Rosà R., Carpi G., Hauffe H.C. et al. (2012). Effects of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. I: Empirical assessment. Int J Parasitol, 42: 365–372. Chen X, Li F, Yin Q, Liu W, Fu S, He Y, et al. (2019). Epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis in China, 2007- 2018. PLoS ONE 14(12): e0226712. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226712 Chicherina G.S., Morozova O.V., Panov V.V., Romanenko V.N., Bahvalov S.A., Bahvalova V. N. (2015). Osobennosti infekcii virusom kleshchevogo encefalita Ixodes persulcatus Schulze i Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev v period rosta chislennosti i transformacii vidovoj struktury soobshchestva iksodid (Features of the tick-borne encephalitis virus infection of Ixodes persulcatus Shulze и Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev 1946 during period of growth and transformation of species structure of the ixodids community). Voprosy virusologii, 60 (5): 42-46 (in Russian). Dampilova, I.G., Turanov, A.O. (2014). Voprosy epidemiologicheskogo nadzora za kleshchevym virusnym encefalitom v Zabajkal’skom krae (Issues of epidemiologic surveillance of tick-borne viral encephalitis in Transbaikal Territory). Nacional’nye prioritety Rossii, 3 (13), 33-36 (in Russian). Daniel M., Kolar J., Zeman P., Pavelka K., Sadlo J. (1998). 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Novosibirsk: Nauka, 224 (in Russian). https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3323 Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).The information and opinions presented in the Journal reflect the views of the authors and not of the Journal or its Editorial Board or the Publisher. 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Авторы, публикующие в данном журнале, соглашаются со следующим:Авторы сохраняют за собой авторские права на работу и предоставляют журналу право первой публикации работы на условиях лицензии Creative Commons Attribution License, которая позволяет другим распространять данную работу с обязательным сохранением ссылок на авторов оригинальной работы и оригинальную публикацию в этом журнале.Авторы сохраняют право заключать отдельные контрактные договорённости, касающиеся не-эксклюзивного распространения версии работы в опубликованном здесь виде (например, размещение ее в институтском хранилище, публикацию в книге), со ссылкой на ее оригинальную публикацию в этом журнале.Авторы имеют право размещать их работу GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY; Vol 17, No 1 (2024); 6-15 2542-1565 2071-9388 GIS GeoDa endemic areas space-time clusters modeling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2024 ftjges https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2023-311710.21055/0370-1069-2021-1-6-1610.1038/sdata.2018.21410.15761/VRR.100010310.1038/s41597-022-01307-410.1371/journal.pone.022671210.1099/0022-1317-80-1-17910.1017/CBO9780511973420.01010.1016/j.ttbdis.2019.04.01910. 2024-04-08T00:11:04Z The south of the Russian Far East is distinguished by diversity of natural conditions for the presence of vectors and circulation of pathogens, primarily tick-borne infections. Despite the relatively low proportion of tick-borne encephalitis in the structure of tick-borne infections and the rather low incidence rate compared to other Russian regions, the disease here has epidemiological significance, which is associated with its severe course. Therefore, it is important to identify local areas of greatest epidemic manifestation of the disease and potential drivers influencing the spread of tick-borne encephalitis. This study uses data on population incidence in the municipal districts of Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast, Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Zabaikalsky Krai between 2000 and 2020. Based on Kulldorf spatial scanning statistics, a temporally stable cluster of virus circulation in the population in the southwest of Zabaikalsky Krai was identified, which existed during 2009-2018. Regression modeling using zero-inflated negative binomial regression based on a set of environmental and socio-economic predictors allowed to identify variables determining the probability of infection: the share of forest, the amount of precipitation in the warm period, population density, as well as variables reflecting population employment and socio-economic well-being. Despite the fact that tick-borne encephalitis is a natural focal disease and may be characterized by natural periods of increased incidence, the influence of the social component can have a strong impact on the epidemiological manifestation. The identified spatio-temporal differences within the study region and potential drivers must be taken into account when developing a set of preventive measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health Geography, Environment, Sustainability |