Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions
Very-low-frequency/ low-frequency (VLF/LF) sub-ionospheric radiowave monitoring has been widely used in recent years to analyze earthquake preparatory processes. The connection between earthquakes with M ≥5.5 and nighttime disturbances of signal amplitude and phase has been established. Thus, it is...
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Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV
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ftjaog:oai:ojs.annalsofgeophysics.eu:article/6224 2023-05-15T16:59:03+02:00 Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions Popova, Irina Rozhnoi, Alexander Solovieva, Maria Levin, Boris Hayakawa, Masashi Hobara, Yasuhide Biagi, Pier Francesco Schwingenschuh, Konrad 2013-08-30 application/pdf https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224 https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6224 eng eng Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224/6237 https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224 doi:10.4401/ag-6224 Annals of Geophysics; V. 56 N. 3 (2013); R0328 Annals of Geophysics; Vol. 56 No. 3 (2013); R0328 2037-416X 1593-5213 VLF/LF signal propagation Neural network Earthquakes Wave propagation Seismic risk info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftjaog https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6224 2022-03-27T06:38:14Z Very-low-frequency/ low-frequency (VLF/LF) sub-ionospheric radiowave monitoring has been widely used in recent years to analyze earthquake preparatory processes. The connection between earthquakes with M ≥5.5 and nighttime disturbances of signal amplitude and phase has been established. Thus, it is possible to use nighttime anomalies of VLF/LF signals as earthquake precursors. Here, we propose a method for estimation of the VLF/LF signal sensitivity to seismic processes using a neural network approach. We apply the error back-propagation technique based on a three-level perceptron to predict a seismic event. The back-propagation technique involves two main stages to solve the problem; namely, network training, and recognition (the prediction itself). To train a neural network, we first create a so-called ‘training set’. The ‘teacher’ specifies the correspondence between the chosen input and the output data. In the present case, a representative database includes both the LF data received over three years of monitoring at the station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (2005-2007), and the seismicity parameters of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions. At the first stage, the neural network established the relationship between the characteristic features of the LF signal (the mean and dispersion of a phase and an amplitude at nighttime for a few days before a seismic event) and the corresponding level of correlation with a seismic event, or the absence of a seismic event. For the second stage, the trained neural network was applied to predict seismic events from the LF data using twelve time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The results of the prediction are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Annals of Geophysics (INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Petropavlovsk ENVELOPE(158.626,158.626,53.067,53.067) Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky ENVELOPE(158.651,158.651,53.044,53.044) Annals of Geophysics 56 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Annals of Geophysics (INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
op_collection_id |
ftjaog |
language |
English |
topic |
VLF/LF signal propagation Neural network Earthquakes Wave propagation Seismic risk |
spellingShingle |
VLF/LF signal propagation Neural network Earthquakes Wave propagation Seismic risk Popova, Irina Rozhnoi, Alexander Solovieva, Maria Levin, Boris Hayakawa, Masashi Hobara, Yasuhide Biagi, Pier Francesco Schwingenschuh, Konrad Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
topic_facet |
VLF/LF signal propagation Neural network Earthquakes Wave propagation Seismic risk |
description |
Very-low-frequency/ low-frequency (VLF/LF) sub-ionospheric radiowave monitoring has been widely used in recent years to analyze earthquake preparatory processes. The connection between earthquakes with M ≥5.5 and nighttime disturbances of signal amplitude and phase has been established. Thus, it is possible to use nighttime anomalies of VLF/LF signals as earthquake precursors. Here, we propose a method for estimation of the VLF/LF signal sensitivity to seismic processes using a neural network approach. We apply the error back-propagation technique based on a three-level perceptron to predict a seismic event. The back-propagation technique involves two main stages to solve the problem; namely, network training, and recognition (the prediction itself). To train a neural network, we first create a so-called ‘training set’. The ‘teacher’ specifies the correspondence between the chosen input and the output data. In the present case, a representative database includes both the LF data received over three years of monitoring at the station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (2005-2007), and the seismicity parameters of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions. At the first stage, the neural network established the relationship between the characteristic features of the LF signal (the mean and dispersion of a phase and an amplitude at nighttime for a few days before a seismic event) and the corresponding level of correlation with a seismic event, or the absence of a seismic event. For the second stage, the trained neural network was applied to predict seismic events from the LF data using twelve time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The results of the prediction are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Popova, Irina Rozhnoi, Alexander Solovieva, Maria Levin, Boris Hayakawa, Masashi Hobara, Yasuhide Biagi, Pier Francesco Schwingenschuh, Konrad |
author_facet |
Popova, Irina Rozhnoi, Alexander Solovieva, Maria Levin, Boris Hayakawa, Masashi Hobara, Yasuhide Biagi, Pier Francesco Schwingenschuh, Konrad |
author_sort |
Popova, Irina |
title |
Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
title_short |
Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
title_full |
Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
title_fullStr |
Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions |
title_sort |
neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the kuril-kamchatka and japanese regions |
publisher |
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224 https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6224 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(158.626,158.626,53.067,53.067) ENVELOPE(158.651,158.651,53.044,53.044) |
geographic |
Petropavlovsk Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky |
geographic_facet |
Petropavlovsk Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky |
genre |
Kamchatka |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka |
op_source |
Annals of Geophysics; V. 56 N. 3 (2013); R0328 Annals of Geophysics; Vol. 56 No. 3 (2013); R0328 2037-416X 1593-5213 |
op_relation |
https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224/6237 https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6224 doi:10.4401/ag-6224 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6224 |
container_title |
Annals of Geophysics |
container_volume |
56 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1766051220289486848 |