Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region
Seasonal mean values of tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Atlantic/European Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from a 301-year coupled ocean/atmosphere model run are analysed statistically. Relations between the two fields are identified on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. It is sh...
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Online Access: | https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381 https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3381 |
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ftjaog:oai:ojs.annalsofgeophysics.eu:article/3381 2024-09-15T18:23:42+00:00 Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region Feddersen, H. 2003-12-25 application/pdf https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381 https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3381 eng eng Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381/3427 https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381 doi:10.4401/ag-3381 Annals of Geophysics; V. 46 N. 1 (2003) Annals of Geophysics; Vol. 46 No. 1 (2003) 2037-416X 1593-5213 interactions climate variability 01.01.02. Climate info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2003 ftjaog https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3381 2024-07-12T03:03:34Z Seasonal mean values of tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Atlantic/European Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from a 301-year coupled ocean/atmosphere model run are analysed statistically. Relations between the two fields are identified on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. It is shown that tropical SST variability affects Atlantic/European MSLP in winter. In particular, there appears to be a statistically significant relation, between the leading modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During cold ENSO (La Niña) years the NAO tends to be in its positive phase, while the opposite is the case during warm ENSO (El Niño) years, although to a lesser extent. Similar analyses that are presented for gridded observational data, confirm this result, although here tropical Atlantic SST appears to be stronger related to the NAO than tropical Pacific SST. The linear predictability of a model simulated NAO index is estimated by making statistical predictions that are based on model simulated tropical SST. It is shown that the predictive skill is rather insensitive to the length of the training period. On the other hand, the skill score estimate can vary significantly as a result of interdecadal variability in the climate system. These results are important to bear in mind when making statistical seasonal forecasts that are based on observed SST. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Annals of Geophysics (INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Annals of Geophysics 46 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Annals of Geophysics (INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
op_collection_id |
ftjaog |
language |
English |
topic |
interactions climate variability 01.01.02. Climate |
spellingShingle |
interactions climate variability 01.01.02. Climate Feddersen, H. Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
topic_facet |
interactions climate variability 01.01.02. Climate |
description |
Seasonal mean values of tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Atlantic/European Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from a 301-year coupled ocean/atmosphere model run are analysed statistically. Relations between the two fields are identified on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. It is shown that tropical SST variability affects Atlantic/European MSLP in winter. In particular, there appears to be a statistically significant relation, between the leading modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During cold ENSO (La Niña) years the NAO tends to be in its positive phase, while the opposite is the case during warm ENSO (El Niño) years, although to a lesser extent. Similar analyses that are presented for gridded observational data, confirm this result, although here tropical Atlantic SST appears to be stronger related to the NAO than tropical Pacific SST. The linear predictability of a model simulated NAO index is estimated by making statistical predictions that are based on model simulated tropical SST. It is shown that the predictive skill is rather insensitive to the length of the training period. On the other hand, the skill score estimate can vary significantly as a result of interdecadal variability in the climate system. These results are important to bear in mind when making statistical seasonal forecasts that are based on observed SST. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Feddersen, H. |
author_facet |
Feddersen, H. |
author_sort |
Feddersen, H. |
title |
Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
title_short |
Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
title_full |
Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
title_fullStr |
Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of tropical SST variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic/European region |
title_sort |
impact of tropical sst variations on the linear predictability of the atmospheric circulation in the atlantic/european region |
publisher |
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381 https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3381 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Annals of Geophysics; V. 46 N. 1 (2003) Annals of Geophysics; Vol. 46 No. 1 (2003) 2037-416X 1593-5213 |
op_relation |
https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381/3427 https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3381 doi:10.4401/ag-3381 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3381 |
container_title |
Annals of Geophysics |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810463942429900800 |