Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios
Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when asse...
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Online Access: | https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/1/1-s2.0-S2590332221001093-main.pdf |
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ftjamescook:oai:researchonline.jcu.edu.au:69250 2024-02-11T10:01:17+01:00 Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios Spijkers, Jessica Merrie, Andrew Wabnitz, Colette C.C. Osborne, Matthew Mobjörk, Malin Bodin, Örjan Selig, Elizabeth R. Le Billon, Philippe Hendrix, Cullen S. Singh, Gerald G. Keys, Patrick W. Morrison, Tiffany H. 2021 application/pdf https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/1/1-s2.0-S2590332221001093-main.pdf unknown Elsevier http://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004 https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/ https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/1/1-s2.0-S2590332221001093-main.pdf Spijkers, Jessica, Merrie, Andrew, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., Osborne, Matthew, Mobjörk, Malin, Bodin, Örjan, Selig, Elizabeth R., Le Billon, Philippe, Hendrix, Cullen S., Singh, Gerald G., Keys, Patrick W., and Morrison, Tiffany H. (2021) Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios. One Earth, 4. pp. 386-396. open Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftjamescook https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004 2024-01-22T23:48:43Z Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (“scramble for the Atlantic”), the East China Sea (“the remodeled empire”), the coast of West Africa (“oceanic decolonization”), and the Arctic (“polar renaissance”). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North East Atlantic James Cook University, Australia: ResearchOnline@JCU Arctic One Earth 4 3 386 396 |
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James Cook University, Australia: ResearchOnline@JCU |
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ftjamescook |
language |
unknown |
description |
Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (“scramble for the Atlantic”), the East China Sea (“the remodeled empire”), the coast of West Africa (“oceanic decolonization”), and the Arctic (“polar renaissance”). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Spijkers, Jessica Merrie, Andrew Wabnitz, Colette C.C. Osborne, Matthew Mobjörk, Malin Bodin, Örjan Selig, Elizabeth R. Le Billon, Philippe Hendrix, Cullen S. Singh, Gerald G. Keys, Patrick W. Morrison, Tiffany H. |
spellingShingle |
Spijkers, Jessica Merrie, Andrew Wabnitz, Colette C.C. Osborne, Matthew Mobjörk, Malin Bodin, Örjan Selig, Elizabeth R. Le Billon, Philippe Hendrix, Cullen S. Singh, Gerald G. Keys, Patrick W. Morrison, Tiffany H. Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
author_facet |
Spijkers, Jessica Merrie, Andrew Wabnitz, Colette C.C. Osborne, Matthew Mobjörk, Malin Bodin, Örjan Selig, Elizabeth R. Le Billon, Philippe Hendrix, Cullen S. Singh, Gerald G. Keys, Patrick W. Morrison, Tiffany H. |
author_sort |
Spijkers, Jessica |
title |
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
title_short |
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
title_full |
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
title_sort |
exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/1/1-s2.0-S2590332221001093-main.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North East Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North East Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004 https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/ https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/69250/1/1-s2.0-S2590332221001093-main.pdf Spijkers, Jessica, Merrie, Andrew, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., Osborne, Matthew, Mobjörk, Malin, Bodin, Örjan, Selig, Elizabeth R., Le Billon, Philippe, Hendrix, Cullen S., Singh, Gerald G., Keys, Patrick W., and Morrison, Tiffany H. (2021) Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios. One Earth, 4. pp. 386-396. |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004 |
container_title |
One Earth |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
386 |
op_container_end_page |
396 |
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1790597092366876672 |