A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus
Management of fisheries that exploit mixed-stock populations relies on assumptions made concerning stock structure and mixing in different areas. To address the problems of accounting for uncertainty when formulating scientific advice for the management of highly migratory fish stocks, management de...
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ftjafricanj:oai:ojs.ajol.info:article/33490 2023-05-15T17:41:15+02:00 A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus Cunningham, CL Reid, DG McAllister, MK Kirkwood†, GP Darby, CD 2008-02-07 application/pdf http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490 eng eng NISC http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490/54508 http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490 Copyright for articles published in this journal is retained by the publisher. African Journal of Marine Science; Vol 29, No 3 (2007); 347-367 1814-232X info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article 2008 ftjafricanj 2017-03-05T06:40:41Z Management of fisheries that exploit mixed-stock populations relies on assumptions made concerning stock structure and mixing in different areas. To address the problems of accounting for uncertainty when formulating scientific advice for the management of highly migratory fish stocks, management decisions need to be based upon assessment models that represent plausible alternative hypotheses for stock structure and migration patterns of the exploited populations. We present a multi-stock, multi-fleet, multi-area, seasonally structured Bayesian state-space model in which different stocks spawn in spatially different areas and the mixing of these stocks is explicitly accounted for in the absence of sufficient tagging data with which to estimate migration rates. The model is applied to the Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus population, accounting for the annual spawning-feeding-overwintering migration patterns of the three spawning components, together with uncertainty in the extent to which the southern component migrates north to feed and overwinter, and consequently the extent to which it mixes with the other components and is subject to exploitation. The model allows the effect of exploitation on the individual components to be assessed, and the results suggest that the fishing mortality of southern spawning adults was insensitive to the extent to which they migrated north. Keywords: Bayesian state-space model, mackerel, migration, mixed stocks, uncertaintyAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2007, 29(3): 347–367 Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic AJOL - African Journals Online |
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AJOL - African Journals Online |
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ftjafricanj |
language |
English |
description |
Management of fisheries that exploit mixed-stock populations relies on assumptions made concerning stock structure and mixing in different areas. To address the problems of accounting for uncertainty when formulating scientific advice for the management of highly migratory fish stocks, management decisions need to be based upon assessment models that represent plausible alternative hypotheses for stock structure and migration patterns of the exploited populations. We present a multi-stock, multi-fleet, multi-area, seasonally structured Bayesian state-space model in which different stocks spawn in spatially different areas and the mixing of these stocks is explicitly accounted for in the absence of sufficient tagging data with which to estimate migration rates. The model is applied to the Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus population, accounting for the annual spawning-feeding-overwintering migration patterns of the three spawning components, together with uncertainty in the extent to which the southern component migrates north to feed and overwinter, and consequently the extent to which it mixes with the other components and is subject to exploitation. The model allows the effect of exploitation on the individual components to be assessed, and the results suggest that the fishing mortality of southern spawning adults was insensitive to the extent to which they migrated north. Keywords: Bayesian state-space model, mackerel, migration, mixed stocks, uncertaintyAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2007, 29(3): 347–367 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cunningham, CL Reid, DG McAllister, MK Kirkwood†, GP Darby, CD |
spellingShingle |
Cunningham, CL Reid, DG McAllister, MK Kirkwood†, GP Darby, CD A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
author_facet |
Cunningham, CL Reid, DG McAllister, MK Kirkwood†, GP Darby, CD |
author_sort |
Cunningham, CL |
title |
A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
title_short |
A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
title_full |
A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
title_fullStr |
A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus |
title_sort |
bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations, with application to northeast atlantic mackerel scomber scombrus |
publisher |
NISC |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
African Journal of Marine Science; Vol 29, No 3 (2007); 347-367 1814-232X |
op_relation |
http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490/54508 http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajms/article/view/33490 |
op_rights |
Copyright for articles published in this journal is retained by the publisher. |
_version_ |
1766142702807678976 |